Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 24th, 4:25 PM EST
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Betting Odds: CHI -4.5, O/U 44 via OddsShark
Network: FOX
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray (Start, High-QB2)
As expected, Kyler Murray struggled against the 49ers last week, finishing as the QB19. In his defense, last week (which just so happened to be the first week of fantasy playoffs) was an outlier, where none of the top-10 finishes were drafted in the top-10 of fantasy QBs. Sometimes I wonder why we do this to ourselves.
On paper, this looks like an easy matchup, with the Bears ranking 22nd in PPG to opposing QBs, but this Bears defense has quietly been playing some of their best football, accumulating 13 takeaways in the past four games. The health of Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson will be important to monitor once again, as one of them will be facing off against PFF’s No. 1 ranked overall CB Jaylon Johnson.
Since his return in Week 10, Murray has been slightly disappointing, with multiple touchdowns in just two of five games, resulting in the QB15 in PPG in that span. His fantasy upside has always been dependent on his rushing ability, which he will need to rely on against a vastly improved defensive line, thanks to the addition of Montez Sweat. Murray will need all the help he can get on a (presumably) cold Christmas Eve in Chicago, and with an implied-team total of just 20, should provide high-QB2 numbers once again.
Running Backs
James Conner (Start, Low-RB2), Michael Carter (Sit), Emari Demercado (Sit)
In an absolutely brutal matchup last week, James Conner exceeded all expectations with 89 yards and one touchdown on 17 touches, good for the RB11 finish. This week’s matchup isn’t much better, with the Bears’ defensive line creating the third-highest mismatch against the Cardinals offensive line this week (according to PFF). With that said, Conner is averaging 16.8 touches/game over his last five, and is still the No. 1 option and goal line back on this team. Although his receiving skill set seems to have diminished, he still has at least two receptions in three of the last four games, giving his floor a slight boost. Conner continues to defy age and statistics, and will be a volume-based RB2/FLEX for the remainder of the season.
Michael Carter and Emari Demercado both had surprising success against the 49ers as well, highlighted by Demercado’s 49-yard touchdown run. This was nice to see from the young back, but neither had more than six touches, which is hard to trust on a bad offense. Demercado may get more involved if they go down early, but as +4.5 point underdogs, I have no interest in either option this week.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Marquise Brown (Sit), Michael Wilson (Start, FLEX), Rondale Moore (Sit), Greg Dortch (Sit), Trey McBride (Start, TE1)
Marquise Brown (heel) has now been forced to exit two straight games due to injury, and has officially not caught a pass since Week 12. Head Coach Jonathon Gannon claims he is unlikely to go on IR, but with nothing on the line these last few weeks, I am not expecting him to play, and don’t see any reason to rush him back into the lineup. Even if he is able to go, he will be one of the riskiest options on the slate, and I’d be looking almost anywhere else to fill that spot.
The exciting rookie Michael Wilson (neck) came back to action last week after missing the past month due to injury. With Brown leaving in the third quarter, Wilson was thrust into the WR1 role, but unfortunately walked away with zero receptions on three targets. Better days are ahead for Wilson, but it may be difficult this week against the aforementioned Jaylon Johnson. If Brown is unable to go, Wilson should see an uptick in targets, but cannot be considered more than a low-range FLEX option.
Rondale Moore has 11 total yards over the past two weeks, and has no more than two receptions in seven of his last eight games. Meanwhile, Greg Dortch remains a fantasy afterthought, with 17 combined yards over the past two games. Regardless of matchup, they can both be left on waivers.
Trey McBride on the other hand, has solidified himself as a TE1 for the rest of the season. After an absolutely dominant performance against one of the league’s top defenses, McBride should have a much easier matchup this week against LB Tremaine Edmunds, who PFF ranks 55th of 74 qualified LBs. This doesn’t necessarily mean he will outperform his 10-reception, 102 yards from last week, but McBride is a locked and loaded top-5 option this week.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Justin Fields (Start, QB1)
Justin Fields also squared off against one of the league’s top defenses last week in Cleveland, finishing as the lowly QB26 on the week. I do think it’s worth mentioning that both of Fields’ interceptions came on Hail Mary’s (one at halftime and one at the end of the game), and he would have finished as the QB18 without these. And while we’re playing hypotheticals, if Darnell Mooney had caught that final pass, he would have finished as QB10.
Anywho, if you’ve made it this far into playoffs, then you should be pumped about this matchup. The Cardinals come in 23rd in PPG to fantasy QBs, and are fresh off a four-touchdown performance from Brock Purdy. Fields hasn’t been quite as electric this year, but he has all the upside in the world in this matchup. At home with a team-implied total of 24.5, you can roll right back to Fields this week as your QB1.
Running Backs
D’Onta Foreman (Start, FLEX), Roschon Johnson (Sit, FLEX), Khalil Herbert (Sit)
The Cardinals are a dream matchup for fantasy RBs, finally usurping the Broncos for the position of dead last in PPG to the position. On top of that, the Bears come in with the second-highest ranked matchup in regards to OL/DL. Somebody is going to do well against this weak Cardinals run defense, but the backfield continues to be a nightmare guessing game for fantasy managers, with no clear reasoning on a week-to-week basis.
After dominating the backfield with 72 yards on 13 touches two weeks ago, D’Onta Foreman was shut down entirely against the Browns, “earning” -6 yards on six carries. That’s right. He lost one yard every time he touched the ball. Now, this was a bad matchup against Cleveland, and one would reasonably believe that he still has control of the early down and goal line work. However, with very low chances of making the playoffs, this team may be ready to see what they have in rookie Roschon Johnson. Foreman has a high ceiling and low floor in a great matchup, but he will be very difficult to trust, and this backfield carousel may also be his demise.
Meanwhile, Roschon Johnson led the backfield in snap share (49%), touches (nine) and all-purpose yards (60) last week. Johnson is the best receiver in the group, which likely helped his cause as the Bears attempted their comeback. Vegas does not expect the same game script this week, with the Bears coming in as -4.5 favorites, but the Bears regime may also be ready to give the youngster more opportunities after a decent performance against a strong Browns defense last week. I’m expecting 6-8 touches for Johnson again this week, giving him FLEX consideration due to his receiving upside.
Khalil Herbert has proven more than capable over the past few years, but has not been himself since his return from injury. I love the player and talent, but we cannot trust him until we see otherwise.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DJ Moore (Start, WR1), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Cole Kmet (Start, TE1)
DJ Moore had one of his worst games of the season last week, but don’t let that scare you. Moore is a mismatch across the board in the Cardinals secondary, and will continue to see an elite 27.5% target share. He is the WR8 on the season, and will look to build on that in a great matchup against Arizona.
Darnell Mooney went from hero to zero in a split second last week, almost securing the game-winning Hail Mary, instead bobbling and kicking the ball straight into the arms of a defender for an interception. Mooney is long-removed from his WR23 season two years ago, and just has not been able to find the connection with Fields this year. He has seen 15 targets over the past two weeks, but has had two or less receptions in each of the past five games. Despite the good matchup, Mooney cannot be trusted in your playoff lineups, and will look for a fresh start elsewhere next year.
Cole Kmet was the only member of this receiving core with a touchdown last week, finishing as TE9 with just 23 yards receiving on five receptions in seven targets. This is a perfect example of how touchdown-dependent the TE position can be. Kmet is averaging seven targets/game over the past seven weeks, and has a fantastic matchup this week with LB Josh Woods, who ranks 68th of 74 qualified LBs in coverage. Kmet is TE7 on the year, and is a solid TE1 this week against Arizona.
Thank you so much for being here this season. Happy Holidays to you, your loved ones, and most importantly, your fantasy teams!
– Nick Beaudoin