Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, December 25th@ 1:00 PM ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, MO
Betting Odds: KC-10, 41 total via Oddshark.com
Expected Weather: 48 F; Cloudy, Wind
Network: CBS
Writer: Chad Simpson(@CaoChadTTV)
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
Aidan O’Connell (Start QB2)
Aidan O’Connell is not a special talent by any means. He might not even end up being a good talent. What he has been so far is the quality game manager the Raiders thought they were getting from Jimmy Garoppolo this year. In his last outing he torched the Chargers D for 248 yards and 4 TD. Now he is most certainly falling back to earth from ending Brandon Staley’s career and this is not a great matchup with the Chiefs playing much better D in the back half of the season, but he managed to muster 248 yards and 1 TD with zero interceptions a few weeks back against this team despite the offense taking the 2nd half off. I think he comes in just around the QB2 barrier this week.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs (Start RB1), Zamir White (Sit unless Jacobs is out in which case RB2)
Josh Jacobs is expected to return after a week recovering from a calf injury, which should send Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah back from whence they came. Jacobs has posted high end RB1 numbers in 4 of the last 5 weeks with the one miss being the game he got injured in. He has been the top benefactor of the Aidan O(ffense). On the flip side this a Chiefs D that got melted for 141 all-purpose yards and a TD by James Cook 2 weeks ago, gave A.J. Dillon his 2nd best line of the year and gave up 125 all-purpose yards and a TD to this very same Josh Jacobs.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start WR2), Jakobi Meyers (Start WR2), Michael Mayer (Sit)
The Chiefs D has been extremely difficult to pass on for most of the season. They have held A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs to limited catches over the last several weeks and only Devonta Smith and Christian Watson have come close to or exceeded WR1 numbers in the last 8 weeks. The reason I can still start Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers is because they have high target volume floors that were on display previously against the Chiefs this season. The Chiefs against TE’s have been just as brutal with only Hunter Henry and Evan Engram posting quality games against them this season. Leave Michael Mayer on your bench this week.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes (Sit)
This may end up being controversial to read for many of you out there and disheartening to hear, but Patrick Mahomes might be the easiest sit of the week. He followed up Toneygate, where he posted QB20 with a QB14 against the Pats. He hasn’t posted a QB12 or better since posting QB8 in week 12. Before week 12, you have to go even further back to week 9 where he snuck into QB12 by a tenth of a point. The Raiders defense has been playing quite possibly the best football of any team in the league right now. Last time they faced Maxx Crosby he had to claw his way onto the field at less than 50 percent and still managed to sack Mahomes, Now we get Crosby who is much healthier surrounded by motivated teammates coming into a game where not only can they keep their playoff hopes alive they can also severely impact the rival Chiefs chances. I would not be surprised to see Mahomes with incompetent WR’s and facing a blistering defense baring their teeth as a bottom 8 QB this week.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (Start RB1)
Good to go after missing 2 weeks after shoulder surgery, Isiah Pacheco ascends back to the top of the RB chart in a matchup that is as good for RB’s as it is bad for QB’s. Even in their most dominant outings the last 2 weeks, the Raiders’ defense has given up 92 yards to the ghost of Austin Ekeler and Isaiah Spiller. as well as 132 yards to Alexander Mattison (6.6 YPA), Ty Chandler, and Josh Dobbs. Pacheco should get his usual volume and hopefully the combination of getting the shoulder fixed and the great matchup yields the results we hope for here.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Kadarius Toney (Sit, preferably in the lava of the currently erupting at time of writing Icelandic volcano), Rashee Rice (Start WR2), Marques Valdez-Scantling (Sit), Justin Watson (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start TE2)
Rashee Rice will get to at least WR2 on volume despite the poor projections that I provided for Mahomes, as he continues to ascend to lead this Chiefs receiver corps that was so desperate for a top guy. Beyond him, Travis Kelce should be ok at a weak TE position despite his inability to take the specter of Father Time and Shake it Off, but after that I wouldn’t be shocked if the rest of the lot and Noah Gray combine for 10 total fantasy points. The rest of the Chiefs’ shaky receiving corps can stay firmly planted on your bench, if you haven’t dropped them already.