Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 24th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Betting Odds: ATL -1, 44.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter, /u/dotcaim on Reddit)
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Taylor Heinicke (Sit), Colts Defense (Start)
Taylor Heinicke is starting this week in place of Desmond Ridder for the first time since Week 10. Heinicke averaged 12.5 points in his three starts, and this week faces a Colts Defense that has been on a tear over the latter half of the season. Since Week 9, the Colts have 25 sacks (1st), 9 interceptions (2nd), seven forced fumbles (4th), and three defensive touchdowns (1st). The Colts Defense has 91 fantasy points since Week 9 (1st). This is a Colts Defense post.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Start, RB2), Tyler Allgeier (Sit), Cordarrelle Patterson (Sit)
Welcome to Bizzaro Land, where Bijan Robinson gets 11 rushing yards on 7 attempts while Cordarrelle Patterson notches a touchdown. To add to the complexity of this Atlanta Falcons backfield, Tyler Allgeier had the best day on the ground by a Falcons running back, carrying the rock 14 times for 45 yards. It feels impossible to predict whether or not Bijan will get his fair share of carries on any given day, but there’s no denying his talent. Unfortunately, there are times when opportunity (or lack thereof) limits that talent. It feels crazy benching Bijan, but I’m considering safer options where I can. Allgeier and Patterson both have such limited upside that I’m not considering them as playoff starters.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, WR3), Van Jefferson (Sit), Kyle Pitts (Sit, TE2), Jonnu Smith (Sit)
Drake London’s 11-target, 10-catch game from Week 14 is starting to look more and more like the exception than the standard. In the two games London played with Taylor Heinicke (Weeks 8 & 10), he averaged 5.5 targets, 4 catches, 45.5 yards, and zero touchdowns. There’s no fog in this London; as long as Arthur Smith is calling the shots, I want London in a different time zone from my lineup.
Just when we thought the top tight end conversation was over in Atlanta, Jonnu Smith once again outscored Kyle Pitts. Granted, almost all of Smith’s points came from a 56-yard play, which nearly tied Pitts’ output of three catches on four targets for 37 yards. I’m still not starting Smith; I’m more hesitant to start Pitts. Consistency is what I look for in the playoffs and Pitts doesn’t offer it.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew II (Sit, QB2)
Last week was the first time this season that Gardner Minshew II threw for three touchdowns. Those touchdowns carried Minshew to a QB6 finish. Since Week 6, the first week Minshew started for the Colts, he has averaged a weekly finish of QB16. The Falcons allow 17.86 points per game (14th most) to opposing signal callers. I see two average forces meeting and I don’t see any reason to start Minshew in the fantasy playoffs in single quarterback leagues. I consider him a worthy superflex consideration, however.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Start, High-RB2), Zack Moss (Sit, Low-RB2/Flex)
It’s looking like the shoulder injury Zack Moss suffered last week won’t cause him to miss much time, but there are no definites as of Wednesday. What could eat into Moss’s time is the return of Jonathan Taylor. After a three-week absence (three weeks being particularly notable because a player can be placed on IR for four weeks), Taylor participated in a walk-through on Wednesday. As of Wednesday afternoon, there is optimism Taylor will play this weekend, but nothing is set in stone; Thursday and Friday practices will tell all. Whoever plays lead back will face a tough adversary: a Falcons defense that allows the fourth-fewest points per game to running backs. However, from Weeks 6 through 12, Taylor averaged 16.1 points per game. If Taylor is healthy, I’d fire him up as a high-end RB2. If only Moss is healthy, he’ll be worthy of low-end RB2/Flex consideration.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Pittman Jr. (Injured), Josh Downs (Sit), Alec Pierce (Sit), Mo Alie-Cox (Sit, TD or Bust)
Michael Pittman Jr. suffered a head injury last week that looked even scarier in slow motion. He’s a worthy start if he’s miraculously given the green light, but as of Wednesday night, there is no indication that he’ll be cleared in time to play this week. Over the last three games, Alec Pierce has 14 targets to Josh Downs’ 11. Most of Pierce’s production came from Week 13 in Tennesee when had 100 yards and a touchdown. Since then, Pierce has failed to score five PPR points in a game. Downs hasn’t been very productive, either; he has exactly three catches in each of the last three games, topping out at 32 yards in Week 14. The Falcons allow the sixth-fewest points against fantasy wide receivers, so I’m staying away from all options at the position.
Mo Alie-Cox has now caught a touchdown in two straight games. His three targets were more than fellow tight ends Kylen Granson (1) and Will Mallory (1) combined. When Alie-Cox does not have a touchdown, he averages 1.17 points per game. There couldn’t be a better example of a touchdown-or-bust kind of player. The Falcons have only allowed four touchdowns to tight ends this year, so I don’t see lightning striking thrice.