Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, December 24th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Betting Odds: HOU -2.5, 43 total via Odds Shark
Network: CBS
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
Cleveland Browns
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco (Start, QB2)
I certainly didn’t have Joe Flacco being a viable fantasy starter in 2023 on my bingo card. Here we are though. The former Super Bowl MVP has a whopping 939 passing yards and seven touchdowns through three games with the Browns. Turnovers have been an issue for him, but he’s been able to do enough to compensate for them. The Texans’ defense has made tremendous strides under DeMeco Ryans, but they have still allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. In a crucial game with plenty of playoff implications, Flacco can be trusted as a solid QB2 option in 2QB and Superflex formats.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford (Start, Flex), Kareem Hunt (Sit)
It’s becoming increasingly clear that Cleveland has a split backfield. Over the last three weeks, none of their running backs have played more than 57% of offensive snaps. Last week, Jerome Ford out-snapped Kareem Hunt 35 to 22 and out-touched him twelve to eight. Although Ford has been getting the bulk of the work, the overall usage still isn’t enough to inspire much confidence. He does have more upside than Hunt given his usage around the goal line and heavy involvement in the passing game, however. The Texans have PFF’s eleventh-lowest-graded run defense which does provide some hope this week. On the other hand, they did just hold Derrick Henry to a pitiful nine yards on sixteen carries. All in all, Ford deserves flex consideration given the upside, but Hunt can and should remain on the bench.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Amari Cooper (Start, WR3), Elijah Moore (Sit), Cedric Tillman (Sit), David Njoku (Start, TE1)
Largely due to quarterback changes and inconsistent quarterback play in general, it’s been an up and down year for Amari Cooper. He stil leads the team in in receptions, receiving yards, snaps, and targets though. Unfortunately, Week 16 presents a somewhat difficult test for the former Cowboy and Raider. PFF lists Cooper’s matchup advantage as “below average” as he’ll be facing off with impressive cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson. The Texans would be wise to draw up a gameplan which regularly blankets Cooper and throws occasional double teams his way given that he is far and away the best receiver for Cleveland. This could certainly mean trouble for the second-year Brown, but his involvement in the offense makes him too valuable to bench in most formats. He is a high-end WR3 in Week 16.
Neither Elijah Moore or Cedric Tillman has recorded even 85 yards in a game this season. There is no reason to believe this is the week they change that while Joe Flacco is throwing them the ball. There are definitely much better options.
Unlike his wide receiver teammates, the matchup looks pretty enticing for David Njoku. The Texans have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. It also helps that the veteran tight end has been a favorite weapon of Flacco since he’s taken the helm. Over the last two weeks, Njoku has racked up 16 receptions for 195 yards and three touhdowns. He is a smash start against the Texans.
Houston Texans
Quarterback
CJ Stroud (Start, QB2)
There is no question that C.J. Stroud has been phenomenal this season and probably deserves to win Rookie of the Year. There is a lot of uncertainty going into Week 16 though. First off, his availability is still in question. The concussion that held him out against the Titans could do so again. Even if he can suit up, there are some reasons for concern. He will be without fellow rookie phenom Tank Dell and potentially his other breakout receiver, Nico Collins, as well. On top of that, the matchup isn’t doing him any favors. The Browns have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season and are ranked ninth in pass coverage and first in pass rush by PFF. Stroud is too talented to be benched in 2QB and Superlex formats, but he is a shaky QB2 even in those leagues. If he is unable to play due to the concussion, Case Keenum should get the start in real life but still be benched in fantasy given the tough matchup.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Start, RB2), Dameon Pierce (Sit)
There is no doubt that Devin Singletary is now the alpha workhorse in Houston. Over the last two weeks, he has out-snapped Dameon Pierce 90 to 12 and out-touched him 43 to six. Despite his heavy usage, the Browns’ defense could potentially be a problem in Week 16. Cleveland has allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. They are also coming off a game where they held the run-heavy Bears to just 60 rushing yards. Despite this, the matchup isn’t scary enough to be too concerned about Singletary. The Browns are ranked sixth worst in tackling by PFF, and they also are only ranked 20th against the run by PFF. Singletary should see enough volume to overcome any concerns and is a safe RB2 play this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Nico Collins (Start, WR3), Noah Brown (Sit), Robert Woods (Sit), Dalton Shultz (Start, TE2)
There is a whole lot of ambiguity surrounding the Texans this week and the status of their offensive skill players. Is C.J. Stroud playing? Is Nico Collins playing? How does this affect Noah Brown? Let’s consider every possible iteration.
Iteration 1: Stroud and Collins both play.
I’m a little bit more skeptical about Stroud, but let’s say he’s cleared to play on Sunday. In this scenario, Collins should be treated as a low-end WR2. The matchup is scary given the Browns have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers all year. Collins has been a favorite of his rookie signal caller though, and the volume should be nearly guaranteed. Noah Brown would normally be an enticing WR3 or even WR2 while operating as Stroud’s second option, but Denzel Ward and the Browns’ secondary demote Brown to just a flex option.
Iteration 2: Stroud sits and Collins plays.
This is the iteration I find most likely and is, therefore, the one I chose to include in the bolded title above. In this scenario, Collins should still operate as the top receiver, but Keenum provides less upside for his pass catchers. Collins would be a low-end WR3, and Brown would have to stay on your fantasy team’s bench.
Iteration 3: Stroud plays and Collins sits.
This is probably the least likely outcome in my opinion, but who really knows? In this scenario, Brown gets top receiver treatment from Stroud, so Brown would now be the low-end WR2 while Collins rests up for another week.
Iteration 4: Stroud and Collins both sit.
This is the worst scenario. Noah Brown would still be startable though. We saw this scenario play out just last week when Brown hauled in eight receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown while playing with Case Keenum. There is a significant difference between the Titans and the Browns though. I wouldn’t bet on Brown having such a day great again. I think you could expect low-end WR3 numbers.
As for the tight end spot, I’m treating Dalton Schultz as a low-end TE2 regardless. He’s been relatively involved in the offense with 66 targets on the season. The problem: the Browns have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. This makes him nothing more than a fringe TE2.