Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 24th, 2023, 4:05 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Betting Odds: Buccaneers -1, O/U 42 via OddsShark
Expected Weather: 80 F, Foggy
Network: CBS
Writer: Christian Otteman (@COttemanPL on Twitter/X)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence (Start, QB1) or C.J. Beathard (Sit)
Trevor Lawrence is currently in the league’s concussion protocol but is reportedly “progressing well” according to head coach Doug Pederson (via Pro Football Talk). Should he clear protocol in time, Lawrence has the luxury of facing a Tampa Bay defense that allows the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs. Lawrence is banged up right now but was still able to use his legs last week against the Ravens, rushing for 41 yards. Though he and his receivers are dealing with injuries, Lawrence would slide in as a back-end QB1 against a questionable Bucs secondary, while C.J. Beathard would be a back-end QB2. Even if he gets the starting nod, Beathard isn’t a recommended start.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne (Start, RB2), Tank Bigsby (Sit), D’Ernest Johnson (Sit)
Would you believe me if I told you Travis Etienne hasn’t finished as a top-10 RB since Week 8? Things have slowed down a bit for Etienne since coming out of the bye week, though he has had his fair share of tough tests against teams like the 49ers and Ravens. Things don’t get a whole lot easier this week against the Buccaneers, who rank eighth in fantasy points against RBs, but Etienne has enough involvement in the passing game to keep his value afloat as a solid RB2 with upside. Fire him up with confidence, even in this tougher matchup. Meanwhile, Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson can be left on waivers with no hesitation.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Calvin Ridley (Start, WR2), Parker Washington (Start, FLEX), Tim Jones (Sit), Evan Engram (Start, TE1)
Calvin Ridley has been one of the most volatile receivers in the league this year, having a few too many bust weeks for those that spent early draft capital on him. The good news is that the stars are aligning for Ridley owners this week, as he faces a Bucs defense allowing the fourth-most points to wideouts and will likely be counted on to shoulder the load with Zay Jones likely to miss this contest with a hamstring injury. Ridley will do battle primarily against Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum, both of whom rank outside the top 50 CBs according to PFF. Ridley has been fairly inefficient with his targets this year but should see another massive opportunity this week. If there’s one game Ridley is going to hit in, it has to be this one.
Working out of the slot, Parker Washington has a great chance to build on a solid few weeks in his rookie season as he lines up against Christian Izien, PFF’s 72nd ranked CB. Washington had a slightly decreased snap share against the Ravens but will likely be asked to step up in the absence of Zay Jones and function as the team’s WR2. He should be a solid FLEX option against a weak secondary as long as Lawrence is good to go under center. Rounding out the Jags’ receivers is Tim Jones, who doesn’t have enough usage under his belt to be considered a viable option in the fantasy semifinals.
Another player with a chance to shine in this game is TE Evan Engram, who ranks as a TE1 this week in wake of the injuries to the Jags’ receiving room. Engram has seen at least six targets in every game this year outside of Week 1 and has nine top-10 finishes at the position this season. Even against the Bucs, who allow the fifth-fewest points to TEs, Engram has the opportunity to turn in another solid performance as the Jags will need to look his way often to keep the chains moving.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield (Start, QB1)
Baker Mayfield played like a man possessed against the Packers in Week 15, turning in a perfect passer rating while throwing four touchdown passes. Mayfield will look to keep things rolling at home against a Jaguars defense that allows the fourth-most points to the QB position. With a great supporting cast of playmakers and the Buccaneers looking to win the NFC South crown, Baker sits near the end of the QB1 tier, especially with the number of QB injuries we’ve endured this season.
Running Backs
Rachaad White (Start, RB1), Chase Edmonds (Sit)
Few running backs have impressed in the second half as much as Rachaad White, who has three straight games with 20+ carries, 100+ scrimmage yards, and a touchdown. White has shown impressive receiving chops all season long and looks like one of the rare explosive workhorse backs in the modern NFL. The Jags present a stingier run defense than most, but White has shown enough to be trusted as an RB1 option at this point in the season. Chase Edmonds does not pose a threat to White’s workload and can be left on waivers.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, WR3), Trey Palmer (Sit), Cade Otton (Start, TE2)
Aside from one mega-dud in Week 14, Mike Evans has been amongst the most consistent receivers in the league this year. With 11 touchdowns on the season, he is Baker Mayfield‘s go-to red zone target and has consistently shown he still has big play ability in his age-30 season. The Jaguars secondary is not one to fear, as they allow the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Only Darious Williams, PFF’s 13th-ranked corner, is a threat to limit Evans, who should still be started in all formats due to his red zone usage and stratospheric ceiling.
Chris Godwin, meanwhile, has seen back-to-back games with double digit targets for the first time this season. Godwin hasn’t been the same threat he’s been the past few seasons, but there’s a possibililty something is clicking with his quarterback that wasn’t clicking in the earlier parts of the season. Outside of Williams, Jags CBs Tre Herndon and Montaric Brown don’t pose a threat to the Bucs’ passing game, meaning Godwin has a solid chance to extend his hot streak. He slides in as a cautiously optimistic WR3, while Trey Palmer should be rostered only as a Dynasty league stash for now.
Finishing things off, we have second-year TE Cade Otton, who has been a solid streaming option in a pinch and will continue to be just that in Week 16. The Jags allow the third-most points to the position, meaning Otton has a better chance than most to come through if you need to head to waivers for a stream.