Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 24th, 4:25 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Betting Odds: MIA -1.5, 51 total via Odds Shark
Network: FOX
Writer: Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (Start, QB1)
When fantasy owners were counting on him most, he disappeared. In the first round of the fantasy playoffs, Dak Prescott scored 6.1 points against the Bills. That said, if you have Prescott, you should give him one more chance in week 16. The Cowboys have an implied team total of 24.5 points, and the over/under is 51 points, which should cause Prescott to throw the ball a ton.
The Cowboys have allowed the 13th least fantasy points to quarterbacks (15.05) but that doesn’t make too much of a difference. Assuming Tyreek Hill is healthy for Miami in week 16, this game should quickly turn into a shootout.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard (Start, RB2), Rico Dowdle (Sit)
After scoring over 15 points four weeks in a row, Tony Pollard put up 7.7 points in the fantasy playoffs. The 2023 season has been less than ideal for Pollard, who’s averaging 13.9 PPG. Even so, Pollard should be in a high-scoring game, raising his ceiling. While it does worry me that the Dolphins have allowed the 7th least fantasy points to running backs (18.46 PPG), he’s still a low-end RB2 this week.
Rico Dowdle hasn’t been fantasy-relevant outside three games this year and should never be a start. Despite getting 12 carries in week 14, we’ve only seen Dowdle have more than 10 carries one other time this year. Let’s not forget Dowdle is averaging 5.6 PPG in 2023, which should tell you all you need to know.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR1) Brandin Cooks (Start, WR3), Michael Gallup (Sit), Jake Ferguson (Start, TE1)
Unlike the other players on this Cowboys offense, CeeDee Lamb didn’t disappoint fantasy managers in the playoffs. Lamb ended up scoring 18.6 points on ten targets, seven receptions, and 53 yards. I’m expecting a bounce back for Prescott, and it seems like the sportsbooks agree with me based on the Cowboys implied team total. In what should be a shootout, don’t be surprised if Lamb goes nuclear.
The Dolphins have allowed the 16th most fantasy points to wide receivers (33.14 PPG), which doesn’t change anything. However, according to Pro Football Focus, Lamb has a matchup advantage score of 84.4, which rates as “Good.” For reference, this is the fourth-highest score of any wide receiver, which makes me even more confident that Lamb is about to go off.
Brandin Cooks has been the definition of boom or bust in 2023, averaging 10 PPG with scorelines scraping the bottom of the barrel and others putting him near the top of the scoring charts. We’ve seen Cooks go off at times, scoring 16.5 and 17.2 points in back-to-back weeks. Let’s not forget when Cooks went nuclear against the Giants, scoring 32.3 points. While this week 16 game should have a lot of scoring, giving more opportunity to Cooks, it’s hard to rank him higher than a WR3 given his lack of consistency. His WR/CB matchup isn’t great, either. On PFF, Cooks has a matchup advantage score of 44.8, which grades as “Below Average.” Cooks has the upside to pop this week, but I would only be starting him as a WR3.
I had high hopes for Michael Gallup coming into the 2023 season, but he’s been very disappointing. Gallup is averaging 6.1 PPG, and even in a high-scoring affair, he’s not worth a start. To make things worse, Gallup has a matchup advantage score of 37.1, which is “Below Average.” Please stay away from Gallup in your fantasy playoffs.
In a brutal tight-end landscape, Jake Ferguson has been a viable TE1 in 2023. Coming into week 16, Ferguson is averaging 10.6 PPG, making him the TE9 this season. In a high-scoring game, Ferguson should see a ton of volume coming his way. The Dolphins have allowed the 16th most fantasy points to tight ends (11.64 PPG), which doesn’t change my opinion. It is worth mentioning, however, that Ferguson has a 4 percent matchup advantage, according to PFF, which is slightly above average.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (Start, QB2)
Despite having an excellent real-life performance, Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t great for fantasy in week 15. Tagovailoa went 21/24 but only threw for 224 yards and a touchdown. However, the Dolphins played the Jets, and that game quickly got out of hand. Facing off against the Cowboys, Tagovailoa will be forced to throw the ball a lot more if the Dolphins want to win. The Cowboys have allowed the 12th least fantasy points to quarterbacks, but Tagovailoa has a phenomenal game script that should outweigh any of these concerns.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert (Start, RB1), De’Von Achane (Start, RB2)
Raheem Mostert has easily been one of the best pickups in fantasy this year. If you drafted Mostert late or got him on the waiver wire, he’s likely been a key reason why you’re in the playoffs. Mostert is a must-start, and I’m expecting RB1 numbers out of him this week. Even though the Cowboys have allowed the 11th least fantasy points to running backs (18.83 PPG), playing in a high-scoring matchup is perfect for Mostert. He already has 20 touchdowns in 2023, and playing in a shootout like this gives him even more touchdown upside. I’m expecting a bounce-back week from Mostert efficiency-wise, which will propel him to a massive week 16.
De’Von Achane had his worst game of the season last week, scoring 9.2 points and averaging 3.6 YPC. From what we’ve seen so far, Achane is on track for a bounce-back game against the Cowboys. He isn’t the goal-line back, which takes away from his touchdown upside, but he’s on the field a ton during passing situations. We just saw Achane draw nine targets in week 14, and I expect this increased passing volume to help him out a ton in week 16.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR3), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Durham Smythe (Sit)
Assuming Tyreek Hill plays, there shouldn’t be any question about starting him. Hill didn’t practice on Wednesday, but it looks like a measure of caution more than a red flag. Hill still has a chance to cross 2,000 yards, which may motivate him to play now that he’s had some time to rest. The Cowboys have allowed the fifth least fantasy points to wide receivers (28.24 PPG), but with how high-scoring this game should be, I’m not worried. Hill is easily a high-end WR1 in any game he plays.
With Hill out last week, Jaylen Waddle had a monster game scoring 28.2 points. If Hill doesn’t play again, Waddle should be viewed as a high-end WR2. Although playing in a shootout should give Waddle more opportunities, he’s been very boom or bust in 2023, with an emphasis on bust, only scoring more than 15 points in four games. However, Waddle has a good matchup with a matchup advantage score of 71.7, which rates as “Good.”
Even with no Hill, Braxton Berrios was only able to score 2.2 points. No one should be surprised, as Berrios is only averaging 4 PPG on the year and has never been fantasy-relevant. Durham Smythe did have one of his best games of the season last week with 7.2 points, so if Hill misses, you can plug him in as a TE2. Otherwise, despite the Cowboys allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends (10.14 PPG), I wouldn’t be playing Smythe, considering he’s averaging 3.6 PPG.