Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 12, 1:00 pm EST
Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Betting Odds: PIT -3.5 O/U 39 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Jordan Love (Start, QB2)
Last week was the most complete game we’ve seen from Jordan Love so far. He had his best completion percentage (thanks for learning to catch, guys!) at 76.9 and compiled an average of 8.8 yards on those catches, easily his best of the year. I saw him make second reads several times, and even hit a third read once or twice. I WILL TAKE THESE SMALL VICTORIES. So, great progress, but one week doesn’t make a permanent wave, and J Love still only ended up with 228 yards and one touchdown. He’s under duress a lot more these days, granted; that line at times appears to go on strike for a baked potato bar at the commissary mid-game a lot, but Love is appearing to handle it a little better each week.
Love still can’t throw a long ball within five to twenty yards of his guys without the wind and direct intervention from God roughly 95 percent of the time, but that’s got to get better someday, right? Anyhow, I would lean towards a logical approach that will lean heavier on Aaron Jones and a shorter, controlled passing game. So I still like Love a lot in superflex, and even as a streaming starter in larger leagues considering the dearth of healthy ones out there right now (albeit on the lower end of the point scale). I wouldn’t count on Jordan to make up a lot of lost ground for struggling squads at this juncture, but he can serve as a fantasy starter if stronger core players surround him. This is s decent matchup, assuming the line doesn’t allow T. J. Watt to murder Love in the first quarter.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Start, RB2), AJ Dillon (Sit, Flex)
Well, after a long, dry desert of a month-plus, the Packers’ rumbled into last week with the novel approach of “feeding their best offensive weapon the ball and continuing to do so when there was success.” It only took half a season to get there, but things are looking up. I personally take a large share of the credit for recommending Aaron Jones sit on your bench last week so that I could yet again come off looking like I’ve suffered a severe industrial head injury after the dust cleared on Sunday. I understand that chances are strong that the recommendation was ignored, and if you did so, congratulations! Nonetheless, it’s clear my words provided that spark that Jones needed. So this week, we get back to business as usual in the Green Bay backfield, fantasy-speaking. This is, of course, based on the assumption LaFleur actually liked winning that game last week and sticks with the kind of planning that got him there: plenty of Showtyme and sparing use of AJ Dillon.
Jones finished a yard shy of a century in all-purpose yards and added his first touchdown since Week 1. He did dribble one away, but let’s attribute that as a surprise fumble as Jones must have been in shock they kept giving him the ball. This novel ‘solid logic’ approach to the offense had to be shocking. Look for more of this approach against a Steelers’ defense that is in the bottom ten in total yards ceded and yards allowed per carry. I don’t hate Dillon as much as I was foaming about earlier in the year – he’s showing more…grit? burst? thigh-power? That said, there’s no reason for either the Packers or the greater fantasy community to be looking to him as anything more than a desperation flex start here as long as Green Bay stays their current course (and as long as Jones stays healthy).
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Watson (Sit), Romeo Doubs (Start, Flex), Jayden Reed (Start, Flex), Dontayvion Wicks (Sit), Luke Musgrave (Start, TE2)
So let’s start by commending the majority of this Green Bay receiving corps for learning how to catch in about a week’s time – there were remarkably fewer drops against the Rams than we’d become accustomed to seeing from this crew, and LOOKEE LOOKEE, that helped contribute to a conclusive win! Granted, it came against a team that rattled out such impressive quarterback play in Matthew Stafford‘s absence that somehow Carson Wentz got a job this week, but let’s not quibble over details here.
I’ll start with the less-than-ideal: Christian Watson caught one (impressive) ball on two targets, and in doing so immediately exited the game with both back AND chest injuries, and definitely NOT a concussion (wink-wink). So Green Bay should probably look into investing in a really fancy cryogenic chamber, and just leave Watson in there with an ice pick next to it for use only in emergencies (defined as “one reception of approximately 30 to 40 yards”). Benefitting from Watson’s severely limited targets and contributions has been….Dontayvion Wicks? Okay, not really: Wicks has seen 4 targets in consecutive weeks, but was able to almost double his yardage contribution (*49, up from 28) this past week by “catching all the balls thrown to him.”
That said, it’s not enough volume to warrant serious fantasy consideration. And for that matter, I’m not sure any of the wide receivers here can be counted on for a big week: what we’ve seen over half a year, to wildly varying degrees of success, is that one thing Jordan Love has definitely learned from his predecessors is a propensity for spreading it around. Last week, Aaron Jones saw six targets, and nobody else saw more than four. And while all the primary names caught ALL of them (save for the aforementioned one-for-two from Watson), we’ve certainly seen that ‘the long ball’ isn’t in Love’s base deck quite yet.
With that in mind, it’s hard to really get behind any of these guys for fantasy consistency. Romeo Doubs has managed to score in half of the Packers’ games, but aside from a back-to-back crack of 73 yards and 95 yards over a month ago against the Saints and Lions, he hasn’t broken over 50 regularly, so he’s mostly reliant on end-zone production. Jayden Reed seemed right on the precipice of a huge breakout coming out of the Vikings game, then plopped out a steamy nineteen yards last week. Pittsburgh is a middle-of-the-road passing defense to this point, there’s opportunity for any of these guys, but I can only lean towards Doubs and Reed, both in flex play, and even then I’m gritting my teeth and looking away.
But you know what? It was nice to see Luke Musgrave a) figure out how hands work, and b) be intentionally involved in the offensive scheme. Would need to see at LEAST back-to-back successes – and an increase in targets to lean him towards a TE1 consideration, but with very few consistent tight end starters out there this year – Kelce, Hockenson, Kittle… I’d be fine running Musgrave out there and hoping we just saw the beginning of something more substantial, as he has a slightly above-average matchup against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback
Kenny Pickett (Sit)
Somehow, some way, the Pittsburgh Steelers are sitting in second place in the AFC North with a 5-3 record while simultaneously having only put a total of 131 points into the ledger. Only the New York Jets have scored less, and we all know the score there. While his stats aren’t all THAT out of sync with this week’s opposing QB (neither has come close to a 300-yard game at all), Pickett does trail significantly in the other stat that gets you a nod in fantasy. He’s tossed a total of 6 touchdowns in 8 games, and only hit his high-water mark of two in one game this year. In a league that has an incredibly high amount of backups, third-options, and Josh Dobbs showing up and winning a game knowing none of the plays, it takes a lot to be an unquestioned starter in the NFL who simultaneously isn’t roster-worthy in fantasy, but Kenny Pickett is accomplishing that very peak of performance.
Running Backs
Jaylen Warren (Start, Flex), Najee Harris (Start, RB2)
The Steelers have an ulcer-inducing, highly aggravating backfield this year in that it’s functioning as a fairly even split, with both participants performing pretty equally over the past month. Last week, Jaylen Warren won the yardage competition with 88 on 11 carries, but still-incumbent starter Najee Harris countered with 69 of his own on 16 attempts AND snuck into the end zone. The week previous, both sucked eggs combining for 32 yards on 12 carries.
Three weeks back, both scored: Jaylen put up an accompanying 32 yards while Najee managed 53. As for the defensive factors, well, Green Bay hovers around the same level as both the Rams and the Titans in total yards and yards per attempt, and with stalwart Kenny Clark either out for Green Bay this Sunday or playing with a hampered shoulder, either of these guys warrants a spot in starting lineups. Green Bay opponents have seen more success with the run over the pass, even with injuries depleting the Packers to a point where I’m pretty sure a really big seventh-grader took a couple of series at safety last week. Suffice it to say, I’d find room for Steelers running backs in lineups where possible. Slight edge to Najee, who continues to hold a small lead in attempts per game over Warren.
Wide Receivers/ Tight End
Dionte Johnson (Start, WR2), George Pickens (Start, Flex), Calvin Austin/Allen Robinson (Sit), Connor Heyward (Sit)
In the storied history of great Steelers wide receivers such as Plaxico Burress, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and most recently Chase Claypool, it’s refreshing to see the scouting department notching high marks once again with another jackpot combo of mercurial talent and a five-cent head in the form of budding malcontent. This week, George Pickens stopped following all his teammates on X or Twitter or BlueSky, unfriended the Rooney family, listed Mike Tomlin in his burn book, and blocked the words ‘Pittsburgh Steelers’, ‘Primanti Brothers’, ‘Iron City Light’, and ‘Yinzer’ from his Google Alerts. All because he couldn’t remember how to do a toe drag.
Anyway, Tomlin says it’s a non-event that doesn’t matter, and it’s only because his young headcase wants to be successful. Or rather ‘significant’. Of course, it doesn’t bother Mike; he’s got a long history of letting his problems leave by force or their own power to fester and pop elsewhere. While it’s certainly a little early to think Pickens has burned through his chances already, the lack of consistent success from his quarterback, combined with a two-week plummet in catches (two against Tennessee, one against Jacksonville, both on five targets each), combined with the kind of dumb temper tantrum off-field that’s usually reserved for someone successful, I don’t like Pickens this week.
Diontae Johnson is simply the better receiver and rightfully draws more looks. With the struggles Kenny P has had this year, Diontae has proven to be the one guy he has a consistent connection with. I don’t look for the pecking order to change a bit because of GP’s foot-stomping, so Johnson should continue to see some success with the volume of targets he’s getting. He should perform just fine against a still incredibly young (and injured) Packers secondary (though it’s worth noting that Green Bay remains a Top Ten passing defense in terms of yardage, yards-per-attempt, and touchdowns allowed). Neither Calvin Austin nor the fading memory of Allen Robinson has seen more than two targets a game in almost a month, so disregard both. Connor Heyward caught five balls on six targets against the Jaguars two weeks ago, and that resulted in a whopping total of 24 yards. I don’t even know if what he’s doing out there is technically “keeping the seat warm” for Pat Freiermuth while he’s still rehabbing, but he’s clearly saving a spot that won’t become his own.