Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 12th, 8:20 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Betting Odds: NYJ -1.5, O/U 36 via OddsShark
Network: NBC
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
New York Jets
Quarterback
Zach Wilson (Sit, QB2), Trevor Siemian (Sit)
Jets’ HC Robert Saleh has done an incredible job keeping his team competitive this season, but even he is at a loss for words with how to fix this offense. Saleh attended his regularly scheduled interview with the Michael Kay show (ESPN New York) this week, and when asked about the possibility of starting veteran Trevor Siemian, he respectfully declined to answer, leaving listeners speculating on the current standing between coaches and ownership. It feels like any remaining confidence in Zach Wilson has been lost, both publicly and privately.
Wilson has just one game above 12 points on the season, and the Raiders come in ranked 9th to opposing fantasy QBs. The Jets have a team-implied point total of 18.5, which does not exude confidence for a shootout. He remains the presumed starter this week, but even with four teams on bye, you can probably do better.
“I don’t know. I’m gonna plead the fifth.”
If Robert Saleh can’t even defend Zach Wilson anymore, imagine what his teammates say privately. pic.twitter.com/Tyg4Q3dkJM
— Damon Amendolara (@DamonAmendo) November 7, 2023
Running Backs
Breece Hall (Start, RB1), Dalvin Cook (Sit), Michael Carter (Sit)
Since his snap count was removed in Week 5, Breece Hall is the RB8 overall (this includes his bye week). The Raiders come in bottom-4 in PPG to opposing RBs, which is very exciting news for Breece this week. If the Jets win this game, it will likely be at the hands of their defense and/or their star RB. Either way, he is a top-tier talent and a smash start this week against the Raiders.
Dalvin Cook’s trade request did not come to fruition, so he remains a very highly-paid backup in New York. In the same timeframe as Hall above, Cook has taken 15 touches for 50 total yards. As long as Breece is healthy, he will be nothing more than a handcuff.
Michael Carter made six receptions for 24 yards against the Chargers last week, but these were all in garbage time against a soft zone. He remains the RB3 in this offense, and is not worth rostering in fantasy leagues.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson (Start, WR2), Allen Lazard (Sit, FLEX), Xavier Gipson (Sit), Randall Cobb (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Start, TE2), CJ Uzomah (Sit)
The Garrett Wilson pre-season hype has unfortunately fallen short with the loss of Aaron Rodgers, but when you’re an elite talent like Wilson, you still find ways to perform. Wilson is running a 100% route-participation rate, and has the highest target share of anyone in the league (33.5%). He ranks 10th in the league in deep targets, and 5th in red zone targets. Even with poor QB play (and a bye week), Wilson is WR22 on the season. Unfortunately, the Raiders’ defensive strength is in their secondary, ranking top-5 in PPG to fantasy WRs. He may specifically struggle when facing Marcus Peters (PFF’s 23rd-ranked CB), but Peters plays 91% of his snaps on the left side, and Wilson has the skill set to line up and create mismatches anywhere. Wilson’s elite talent and volume keep him in WR2 territory, with WR1 upside if he can turn some terrible pass into an acrobatic catch.
Joe Buck calling Garrett Wilson highlights >>>>
Can’t wait for MNF round 2! #Jets pic.twitter.com/H94y3zvyp8
— Jake Asman (@JakeAsman) November 4, 2023
Allen Lazard was one of the Rodgers crew to be brought over from GB, but unfortunately has not enjoyed the same level of success without his homie at the helm. Lazard (knee) was listed as “limited” on Wednesday, but he played 90% of snaps with the injury last week, and will likely be available again this one. Lazard is averaging just 4.1 targets/game, but has finished as a FLEX (6-10 PPR points) in 5 of 8 games this season. His individual matchups are “poor” across the board according to PFF, and with one touchdown and one game topping 50 yards on the season, I don’t have much interest in Lazard this week.
Tyler Conklin caught all six of his targets for 66 yards last week against the Chargers. He has been an extremely quiet safety valve for Wilson all season, matching Lazard with 4.1 targets/game. The Raiders come in 14th in PPG to opposing TEs, and there is a (small) window for success for Conklin this week. Raiders’ LB Robert Spillane is enjoying the best statistical season of his career, but where he has been lacking is in pass coverage, ranking 41st of 79 eligible LBs. Conklin has zero touchdowns on the season, but he could sneak his way into TE2 territory again this week, which he has done in five of eight games already.
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterbacks
Aidan O’Connell (Sit, QB2)
Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders seemed to be enjoying themselves after their first win with Interim HC Antonio Pierce. Despite having zero touchdowns on the day, O’Connell still played admirably in his second career start. He looked confident and composed against a Giants defense that has played surprisingly well against fantasy QBs this season.
But we’re here to talk fantasy. Even with the Raiders scoring 30 points, O’Connell finished as QB23 on the week. This week, he will be taking on a much tougher opponent. The Jets’ defense has been stout all season, and has played well against much more competent QBs than O’Connell, including last week, holding Justin Herbert to 136 yards passing, zero touchdowns, and a 53% completion percentage. O’Connell has rushing upside that we haven’t seen yet, but he may need to use his athleticism this week if he’ll have any chance of success. With a team-implied point total of just 17.5, I’m out on O’Connell this week.
Wow: #Jets HC Robert Saleh says they’ve played a “gauntlet” of quarterbacks and have “embarrassed” all of them
QBs they have faced: Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Mac Jones.
They’ve done very well.
pic.twitter.com/RK2ZLvynQI— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) October 16, 2023
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (Start, RB2), Zamir White (Sit), Ameer Abdullah (Sit)
Josh Jacobs is coming off his best (fantasy) performance of the season, taking 26 carries for 98 yards and two touchdowns. The Jets come in 20th in PPG to opposing fantasy RBs, allowing two touchdowns and the RB4 overall finish to Austin Ekeler last week. Just like most weeks, there will likely be a direct correlation between Jacobs’ success and the level of competency the Raiders offense has. He is all but guaranteed another 15+ touches, and still has no competition in this backfield. Jacobs is a safe RB2 this week, and definitely has RB1 upside if they get him involved in the passing game again.
Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah both played under 15% of snaps last week, and there is no reason to assume any change this week.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, FLEX), Jakobi Meyers (Start, WR3), Tre Tucker (Sit), Hunter Renfrow (Sit), Michael Mayer (Sit, TE2), Austin Hooper (Sit)
I’ll probably ruffle some feathers here, but if I’ve got Davante Adams on my team, I’m still starting him every week. It’s definitely been rough, but we all know he is that dude. Adams is averaging 6.8 PPR points/game over the past four weeks (barely in our FLEX category), which is where we have to grade him this week in a tough matchup against Sauce Gardner and the Jets’ secondary. With an expected positive game script and a new HC looking to keep his All-Pro WR happy, hopefully, Adams can get back on track this week.
Jakobi Meyers on the other hand has been putting together his best season as a pro, adding a 17-yard rushing TD to his resume last week. Meyers’ matchups also do not project well, but he’s heavily involved in this offense, averaging 7.8 targets/game and coming into the week as WR18 in PPG. My expectations are tempered, but Meyers is still worth a start with four teams on bye.
Third-round rookie Tre Tucker played 47% of snaps last week, reeling in two receptions on three targets for 52 yards. He is a name to monitor in Dynasty leagues, but does not present much upside this season in standard leagues. Meanwhile, Hunter Renfrow’s snap share plunged down to 22%. He will need a change of scenery if he ever is to be fantasy-relevant again.
Michael Mayer has supplanted Austin Hooper for the starting TE role, out-snapping him 88% to 48% last week, but has finished with exactly three PPR points in each of the last three games. The Jets are bottom-7 in PPG to opposing TEs, but I’m waiting for a more consistent version of Mayer before I trust him in my lineup.
– Nick Beaudoin