Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 12th @ 4:25 PM ET
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Betting Odds: DAL -16, 38.5 total via PFF.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Adam Sloate (@MrAdster99 on Twitter/X)
New York Giants
Quarterbacks
Tommy DeVito (Sit)
This might be the easiest sit decision of any QB for the week, especially now that we don’t have to suffer through Clayton Tune under center in Arizona (for now). Last week, against a far less potent Raiders defense, DeVito threw for 175 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, and took a concerning 6 sacks.
The Raiders — last week’s opponent — have the 23rd-best pass rush in terms of ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate, while the Cowboys rank 1st in the same metric. Dallas also grades out much higher than the Raiders in PFF’s pass rush rating and coverage units, so this matchup is about as far from “ideal” as they come.
Another factor to consider, one which I consider a negative for DeVito, is that OT Evan Neal is listed as “questionable” but is likely to miss this game due to an ankle injury suffered in last week’s loss. Neal is among the worst-graded pass blockers by PFF, illustrating that he provided very little protection for whichever poor, unfortunate soul was throwing the football behind him. And, if he’s a starting tackle, one can only imagine what horrors await behind him on the depth chart.
Not to worry: the next man up would be OT Tyre Phillips, who has graded out slightly better than Neal in the same metrics, albeit in very limited quantities, so that’s something to be excited about if you’re feeling optimistic! But, even with a hypothetical protection bump from Phillips, the rest of this offensive line still bears a striking resemblance to turnstiles during games, and DeVito is likely going to be running for dear life against a very angry Dallas pass rush.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (Start, RB2)
Barkley is a perplexing play this week, given the unfavorable game script. The Giants will likely be playing from behind early, as they did for much of the final three quarters against Las Vegas last week. It’s a shame for fantasy managers that Barkley won’t really be able to take advantage of what has been a somewhat susceptible Dallas run defense this season (28th in Run Stop Win Rate, 12th-best in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs). However, with what will likely be increased passing game work, I expect Barkley to ultimately return solid value for fantasy managers.
Barkley still had his most efficient game this season, running 16 times for 90 yards for an average of 5.6 yards per carry, over a full yard per carry better than any other start, although much of his success came with Jones in the game and the score still close. His carries were both reduced and less efficient once the Giants had fallen behind by multiple scores in the second half (9 carries, 40 yards once DeVito took over, compared to 7 carries, 56 yards with Jones). Making up for that production was increased passing game work in the final quarters, which salvaged his fantasy production for the day.
This week, the Giants are going to be talent-deficient across the field, and they’ll fall behind fairly early unless DeVito can morph into a poised and talented QB who doesn’t look like he’s getting his second career start. Barkley should start with a strong workload on the ground as the Giants try to keep it close, and he’ll be a safety blanket once the Giants have to turn to the passing game to try and chase down the Cowboys. The floor here is RB2-level, but a touchdown would bring Barkley up into the RB1 production range, so he’s a comfortable start. The risk in Barkley’s profile this week is that DeVito is about as unproven as they come and the Dallas defense will likely be out for blood after getting torched for 28 points by the Eagles last week.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
Darius Slayton (Sit), Daniel Bellinger (Sit), Wan’Dale Robinson (Sit), Jalin Hyatt (Sit)
The one thing this passing game has going for them is that there will be volume to soak up. With the Giants playing from behind and needing to throw to keep pace with Dallas’ offense, someone’s going to get the ball, right?
Unfortunately, we only have a 1-game sample size to draw conclusions about Tommy DeVito’s ability to sustain fantasy-relevant WRs, and approximately 2 players scored enough to pass our threshold for “Sit”: Slayton and Bellinger, who tallied Flex and TE2-level production last week. Given the downgrade in matchup from last week and the difficulty in predicting trends based on a tiny sample size, I’d say that all of these Giants’ pass-catching options can be left on the bench or, better yet, on the waiver wire.
If you want to throw a dart at one of these players, I would suggest Bellinger, given that DeVito will be throwing a lot as the game progresses, he’ll be under pressure, and Bellinger should be another safety valve to alleviate the pressure of a Dallas pass rush. He also saw a fair amount of passing game work last week with DeVito under center. It doesn’t hurt that Bellinger’s projected coverage rates as pretty average, too.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (Start, QB2)
Dak is in a terrific stretch right now, as he’s now thrown for 678 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 1 INT, and tacked on 33 additional rushing yards in his last two games. However, since this game is anticipated to be at least a comfortable and boring Dallas win, with a projected total hitting only 39 and Dallas favored by two full scores, I wouldn’t expect Dak to total the gaudy numbers of the last two matchups.
When Dallas has won by 20+ points this season (4 games), Dak has eclipsed the QB1 value threshold twice. There are no immediately apparent patterns or differences between the games where Dak has returned QB1 value versus QB2 value; I thought it might have something to do with Tony Pollard‘s success on the ground or the number of points scored by the defense, but there’s minimal rhyme or reason to Dak’s production in blowouts. I lean towards QB2 because I don’t think the Giants will really push the Cowboys much this game, at all, and Dak could be pulled early for health and safety.
Running Back
Tony Pollard (Start, RB2)
Pollard has been remarkably consistent in his ground production over the last 3 weeks, regardless of score or matchup: 12-15 carries, 50ish yards, and no scores. He hasn’t scored since Week 1, where he punched it in against these very same Giants in a 40-0 laugher (14 carries, 70 yards on the ground in that game). But these patterns won’t stick around forever, especially because the Giants are a far better ground matchup than the Chargers (12th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs), the Rams (21st), and the Eagles (32nd). New York is allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs and the 8th-most rushing yards to opposing teams, which is good news for Pollard. He should get his usual 15 carries or so, but he could improve upon his mediocre rushing performances as of late and maybe sneak into the end zone to break a long dry spell.
Even in blowouts, Pollard’s rushing output has never really hit significant heights; in Dallas wins of 20+ points, Pollard has churned out 70 yards (5 yards per carry), 72 yards (2.9), 47 yards (4.3), and 53 yards (4.4). Where Pollard will improve on his base fantasy output — outside of scoring TDs — is through the receiving game. And, in blowouts, he’s never gone for more than 37 yards of receiving work, regardless of target numbers or receptions. He’ll need to turn what will likely be dump-off and clock-churning work into longer gains.
The main beneficiaries of a Dallas blowout would be Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn, whose workloads saw slight increases in wins of 20+ points. But the workload increase for both is nowhere near enough to consider them worth starting.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR1), Brandin Cooks (Start, Flex), Michael Gallup (Sit), Jake Ferguson (TE2/Sit)
CeeDee is an easy start. He’s on quite the tear right now, hitting 23 receptions on 30 targets, 349 yards, and 2 TDs (and 12 rushing yards) across his last two games. Don’t overthink it.
Outside of Lamb, the receiving options are spotty and difficult to justify starting based on their workload. As a more conservative fantasy player, I would prefer to sit all three of the other options above, since none of their workloads have been sustainable, but I’m ranking them as though I were not a wimpy fantasy player and looked at their general production in a vacuum.
Cooks is a tricky play here; he was MIA against the Eagles last week, reeling in only a single catch on 2 targets for 7 total yards, but he was starting to re-emerge in this offense in the weeks prior to the dud in Philadelphia. He found the end zone in consecutive weeks and returned WR3 value in each of those games. I think last week’s game was an outlier and that Cooks will see enough of a receiving workload to hit flex status, but he’ll need a TD to push much higher.
Gallup hasn’t returned even flex value since Week 4, against the Patriots. In the 4 games since then, Gallup has seen his receptions drop significantly, and outside of a wild 10-target game against the Chargers, his targets have correspondingly dropped pretty far. I think he’s still rosterable because we know he’s an established player, he’s developed significant chemistry with Dak over the years, and he’s garnered at least 5 targets in half of his games this season, but I wouldn’t start him until I see more than a couple of throws go his way.
Ferguson had a huge week this week, thanks to poor coverage from the Eagles’ Kevin Byard and Nakobe Dean. His workload’s been all over the place this season, from his monster performance last week to just two games prior, when he had all of 1 catch for 15 yards. His workload, on average, settles in the TE2 range, and I think with the Cowboys likely leaning a bit more on the run game to salt away the clock this week, Ferguson’s probably not in a position for an encore to last week’s showing. He’ll still get his looks and make it worth your while.