Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 12th, 4:05 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood California
Betting Odds: DET -2.5, 48.5 total via Odds Shark
Network: CBS
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
Detroit Lions
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff (Start, QB1)
He’s never reached superstar status, but Jared Goff is putting together another solid year in Ben Johnson’s offense. He’s thrown for 2,174 yards and twelve touchdowns this season which means he’s at least worth consideration for your starting lineup every week. This week, however, he deserves complete confidence. The Chargers have allowed the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. On average, they’ve allowed 355 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game when they aren’t playing against Aidan O’Connell, Tyson Bagent, or Zach Wilson. I think it’s safe to say that Goff is significantly better than those three. This game also has a high point total in the sportsbooks which means we can count on plenty of scoring. Against a terrible passing defense in a shootout, Goff is in a beautiful spot. He should be at least a low-end QB1.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (Start, RB2), Jahmyr Gibbs (Start, RB2)
If David Montgomery is indeed able to play on Sunday, the Lions backfield is a very interesting situation to monitor. Before missing time with a rib injury, Montgomery was getting a workload reminiscent of Larry Johnson in 2006. Meanwhile, those with shares of Jahmyr Gibbs discouragingly watched him operate as nothing more than a change of pace back. That changed once Montgomery left the picture, though. Over the last two weeks, Gibbs had 37 carries for 220 yards and two rushing touchdowns while adding 14 receptions for an additional 95 yards. He has been an absolute stud. So the question is, how will these backs be utilized in Week 10?
My best guess is that Montgomery will continue to get the majority of the early down work as long as he is healthy, but Dan Campbell and the Lions will not let their 2023 Round 1 pick stay on the sideline for too long now that they’ve seen his elite ability on full display. The Chargers have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to running backs this season and could be in for a tough afternoon in the trenches against the elite Detroit offensive line. The matchup is enticing enough to make both of these running backs solid RB2 plays even if neither has the backfield to himself. That said, if Montgomery is ruled out, Gibbs is an elite RB1.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, WR1), Jameson Williams (Sit), Josh Reynolds (Sit), Sam LaPorta (Start, TE1)
The man they call “Sun God” is one of my favorite starts of the week: Amon-Ra St. Brown should be in for a huge outing. Undeniably, St. Brown is an incredible talent. He has had at least seven targets in every game this year and has produced over 100 yards in all but two games. He should be a starter in every league around the globe, but this week is especially juicy. The Chargers have struggled in coverage while allowing the sixth most fantasy points to receivers this season. St. Brown has the fourth-best matchup advantage of all wide receivers this week, according to PFF. Furthermore, St. Brown lines up in the slot on over 50 percent of plays, and Ja’Sir Taylor, the slot corner for the Chargers, has struggled in coverage this season. St. Brown should get a ton of opportunities in what will be a frequent mismatch. He is a home run start this week.
Unfortunately for the rest of the wide receivers in Detroit, the situation is murky at best. Jameson Williams was supposed to be a field-stretching weapon who could serve as a legitimate WR2 for the Lions, but he has managed only six receptions through four weeks so far. Meanwhile, Josh Reynolds has struggled to maintain his hot start: he has failed to exceed 8 fantasy points in PPR leagues over the last three weeks despite playing over 70 percent of offensive snaps in each of those contests. Both Williams and Reynolds frequently line up on the outside where Asante Samuel Jr. plays; he has been great in coverage this season. Even against a secondary that has struggled as a whole, no Lions WR aside from St. Brown should be trusted.
The other pass catcher which is more than worth the start is rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. He’s averaging over seven targets per game and has become one of the focal points of this electric offense. The Chargers have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends this season which should give LaPorta the chance to continue his great rookie campaign. At such a shallow position, we’re hard-pressed to find a better TE1 option.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
LA’s franchise quarterback has been a solid fantasy performer this year. Justin Herbert has managed to score at least 19 fantasy points in all but two weeks in most scoring formats. The only two games where he fell short of that mark were against the Chiefs and the Jets, who have great defenses. The Lions have a respectable defense, but not one that should cause major concern. In a game where the Chargers may have to air it out to keep pace with Detroit, Herbert can be considered a decent QB1 play in Week 10.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1), Joshua Kelley (Sit)
Last year’s top-scoring running back is fully healthy and starting to look like his former self again. Austin Ekeler has 183 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks. Week 10 does present a difficult test in the Lions’ defense though. Detroit has PFF’s eight highest-graded run defense, and they have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season. The tough matchup reduces Ekeler’s ceiling a little bit, but he is still a more than trustworthy starter. He is heavily involved in the passing game (especially with Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer out of the picture) and has a nose for the end zone that few running backs do. As he should be just about every week, Ekeler can be considered a RB1 against Detroit.
Josh Kelley only has ten touches over the last two weeks and hasn’t done much with them. He should remain on the bench for as long as Austin Ekeler is active.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Quentin Johnston (Sit), Jalen Guyton (Sit), Gerald Everett (Start, TE2)
Let’s not kid ourselves. Keenan Allen is a reliable WR1 regardless of matchup. He has averaged over ten targets per game on the season, has played over 88 percent of offensive snaps, and has been targeted on over 25 percent of his routes run. Those are some elite numbers from a volume perspective. Rookie Brian Branch has been impressive as a slot corner for Detroit, but that won’t stop Allen from seeing targets. It’s hard to do much better at the WR1 spot.
It may be time to officially give up on first-round rookie Quentin Johnston for 2023. Despite playing over 82 percent of offensive snaps last week, he still only recorded two receptions for 14 yards on three targets. It seems like Allen and Ekeler may be the only reliable weapons for the Chargers while they deal with injuries to some of their other receivers. Still likely operating as the WR2 against the Lions, it’s possible Johnston finally has a breakout game now that he’s not drawing frequent coverage from Sauce Gardner like he did last week. I’m not willing to find out with him in my starting lineup, though. There are much safer options in Week 10, so I wouldn’t take the risk.
Jalen Guyton is the WR3 for the Chargers for the time being, but he didn’t even catch a pass last week. There is no reason to start him. Meanwhile, he may not be a centerpiece in the offense, but tight end Gerald Everett has certainly gotten involved in recent weeks. The Lions have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, and PFF ranks Gerald Everett’s matchup advantage as the sixth-best of all tight ends this week. He is a great TE2 option.