Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, November 13th, 8:15 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Betting Odds: BUF -7.5, O/U 47 via OddsShark
Network: ESPN
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (Start, QB2)
The Broncos come off their bye heading to Buffalo, following a dominant 24-9 victory over the Chiefs. The defense deserves a lot of credit, holding a flu-ridden Patrick Mahomes to just three field goals and four total turnovers, but Russell Wilson was also able to capitalize on his opportunities, passing for three touchdowns and 114 yards on just 12 completions (19 attempts).
The Bills’ defense is one of the most injury-plagued in the entire NFL, but despite a myriad of injuries, they are still ranking 4th in PPG to opposing QBs. They faced several more injuries this past week, with LB Terrell Bernard (concussion protocol), S Micah Hyde (stinger), and CB Christian Benford (hamstring) all unable to finish the game. The Bills unfortunately won’t have their first full practice report until Thursday, but these are all names worth monitoring throughout the week. They did make some savvy (and necessary) moves, trading for CB Rasul Douglas (PFF’s 17th-ranked CB) from the Packers, and signing veteran DT Linval Joseph, who will both be one more week integrated into their system.
I expect the Broncos to come out with a similar game plan to last week, hoping to control the clock and win in the trenches against the Bills’ rush defense, which has been their weak spot through the first half of the season. However, as +7.5 underdogs, Wilson may be forced into a more pass-happy game script than they would like. Although the Broncos have played better as of late, Russ has not topped 200 yards passing in any of the past four games. The Bills are 4-0 at home this season, and coming off a loss to Cincinnati, I am expecting a “get right” game, and for Wilson to struggle when the game is inevitably put on his shoulders. He currently ranks 17th in PPG, and with a team-implied total of 20, this feels like an appropriate finish this week as well.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (Start, RB2), Jaleel McLaughlin (Start, FLEX), Samajae Perine (Sit)
Those of you patient enough to hold Javonte Williams should be extremely excited for the second half of the season. Those of you who don’t have him already should be sending out offers today. The Bills excel in pass coverage, but have been beatable on the ground, coming into the week ranked 21st to opposing RBs. Javonte’s touches have been creeping up the past few weeks, finally exploding in Week 8, taking 30 touches for 98 yards and one touchdown against the Chiefs. The efficiency leaves something to be desired, but this appears to be Williams’ backfield once again, and he should be another week healthier coming off the bye. I don’t fear any game script for Williams, as he is arguably more elusive as a receiving threat than a rusher, and has three receptions in three of the past four weeks. If Williams can truly return to health, he should provide solid RB2 numbers for the remainder of the season.
Glad to see @javontewill33 #AngryRuns are back 😤 pic.twitter.com/7dV9mbPyCK
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 30, 2023
Jaleel McLaughlin has continued to impress in limited action. When he’s on the field, he’s getting the ball. The problem is that he’s not on the field enough to trust for fantasy, averaging just 21% of snaps in their past three games. He is averaging 5.9 PPR points/game the past three games, which is of course .1 away from our FLEX rankings. But I do anticipate a more pass-heavy game script this week than in the previous few, making McLaughlin a low-floor FLEX option this week.
Samajae Perine has seemingly lost his change-of-pace role. Although out-snapping McLaughlin against the Chiefs 17-8, he only received half as many touches, and looks far less explosive. Sit.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start, WR3), Jerry Jeudy (Start, FLEX), Marvin Mims (Sit), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (Sit), Adam Trautman (Sit)
Courtland Sutton has finally resolved the year-and-a-half-long debate of who the WR1 is on this team. Coming in as WR28 on the season, he’s seeing an 88.5% snap share, a 100% route participation rate, and is tied for third in the league with six touchdown receptions. Although Sutton doesn’t project for any favorable matchups this week, he is still maintaining a 21.8% target-share, and will be a necessary playmaker if the Broncos are to compete in Buffalo. Sutton has been pretty touchdown-dependent, but he is ranked 10th in the league in red zone targets, and should surpass his average of 5.8 targets/game in an expected positive game script. Sutton is a WR3, with WR2 upside if he can continue his touchdown efficiency.
Jerry Jeudy remains a Bronco despite the past six months of trade rumors, and will ride out his inconsistent year in hopes of a new team and bigger contract next season. Jeudy is quietly matching Sutton with 5.7 targets/game and 22.2% target share, but he has done far less with his opportunities. PFF has him at a disadvantage in every individual matchup this week, and with a game-high of 13 PPR points this season, Jeudy is merely a FLEX option this week against the Bills.
We’re all hoping to see more of Marvin Mims this season, but with two receptions for four yards in the past three games, we must all continue practicing patience.
Sean Payton clearly has a love for Adam Trautman after bringing him from the Saints, but with 69 receiving yards on the season, he is not relevant for fantasy purposes.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Let’s not overthink this. I know Buffalo has struggled the past few weeks, but this is the NFL. There will always be variance, especially in the middle of the season. Buffalo is at home, with the third-highest team-implied point total (27), facing the 27th-ranked scoring defense to opposing QBs. You’re starting Josh Allen.
Running Backs
James Cook (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Sit), Leonard Fournette (Sit)
I know we’re all supposed to be out on James Cook, but I do see a path to success this week. The Bills come in as heavy favorites, and the Broncos rank dead last in scoring to opposing fantasy RBs. On paper, it makes all the sense in the world for a run-heavy game script for Cook, but admittedly, the Bills often like to ignore the game script. Cook’s ceiling is limited because of his lack of red zone usage, but he should be in line to handle 12-15 touches this week, making him a low-end RB2 in a great matchup.
Latavius Murray is trying wholeheartedly to vulture all of the work from Cook, but has failed in doing so. He has not topped eight rushing yards in any of the past three games, and has been stuffed at the goal line on several occasions, which is essentially the only reason he’s on the team. He’ll always have touchdown upside in this offense, but you can’t trust him in your lineups, which is what brings us to…
Leonard Fournette, or Playoff Lenny, was signed to the practice squad last week. We will likely have to wait until later in the week to see if he is activated to the game, but even if so, we can only assume a few touches as he inevitably takes over the Latavius Murray role. He is definitely worth a stash and a name to monitor as the season progresses.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, FLEX), Khalil Shakir (Start, FLEX), Deonte Harty (Sit), Trent Sheffield (Sit), Dalton Kincaid (Start, TE1)
Stefon Diggs is the WR4 in PPG this season, and is top-6 in the league with a 31.8% target share. There are no matchups to fear in the Broncos’ secondary, or any other secondary while we’re at it. Fire up Diggs as a WR1.
17+14=6‼️
📺: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/1t4TtjsYPb
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 6, 2023
Gabe Davis has been possibly the least consistent fantasy WR this entire season. In his last five games, he has finished with under 21 receiving yards three times, and twice over 87 yards with a touchdown. PFF has less than favorable matchups across the board for Davis, which on paper looks like it may lead to another discouraging performance. But with that being said, Davis is still seeing 6.2 targets/game over the past five weeks, and remains a favorite red zone target for Allen. With attention shifting the way of Kincaid, opportunities may start to present themselves again for Davis. He may have the lowest floor and highest ceiling of any WR this week, but sometimes you have to shoot for the moon.
Khalil Shakir has taken over as the slot receiver in the Buffalo offense. The Bills have been scheming him into game plans, playing 52% of snaps over the past three weeks, with at least four receptions in each game, including performances of 57 and 92 yards in the past two. Shakir plays 76% of his snaps from the slot, which gives him a difficult matchup this week against PFF’s 6th-overall CB in Ja’Quan McMillian, who played a season-high 54 snaps with one interception against the Chiefs. The Broncos have given up big performances in the slot, but the emergence of McMillian over the past few weeks may limit Shakir’s ceiling. He is the fourth receiving option in this offense, but his role is increasing, averaging 8.7 PPR points/game over the past four weeks and keeping him in low-end FLEX consideration.
Dalton Kincaid has exploded over the past three weeks, immediately taking over as the second receiving option in this offense, bringing in 23 receptions (on 26 targets) for 221 yards and one touchdown. Kincaid was a highly-regarded first-round prospect entering the NFL Draft, and that talent has been put on display as of late. The Broncos come in 31st in regards to opposing TEs, so don’t hesitate to run it back with Kincaid again this week.
– Nick Beaudoin