Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 12th, 1:00 pm Est
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Betting Odds: CIN -6.5, 46.5 O/U, per oddshark.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@theDunit13 on Twitter)
Houston Texans
Quarterbacks
C. J. Stroud (Start, QB1)
It’s hard to find someone hotter right now than Coleridge Bernard (C.J) Stroud IV. He came out of the bye week and lit up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 470 yards and five touchdowns. He was able to do it early and often, and he was able to do it when the game was on the line. Stroud looked like a veteran out there despite it being his rookie year, and he will be looking to continue that success against the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals. The Jungle in Cincinnati will be loud and rocking after a big win this past week. Their defense is giving up the 14th most points to quarterbacks which is middle of the road. They will have to rely on their 5th-rated pass rush to get to Stroud because their secondary is ranked 30th. Considering the Houston Texans are rated 16th in pass protection I think it will be a good but not great day for Stroud. You almost have to start him after last week but I’m not expecting another massive week, but he will still be in the QB1 range.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce (Sit), Devin Singletary (Sit, Flex)
With Dameon Pierce out for the Week 9 matchup, we were expecting heavy volume for Devin Singletary. Unfortunately, the game script called for more passing so the former Buffalo Bill only saw 13 carries. It was a letdown for fantasy managers who saw him only rush for 26 yards on those carries. Even more concerning was in a high-volume passing game he only saw two targets. We will be monitoring the practice reports for Pierce this week who is still dealing with an ankle injury. They could use him this week against a Bengals defense that is giving up 15 points to running backs which is dead middle at 16th most. Given that neither has been very effective with their carries (both RBs are under 3.5 yards per carry and only have one rushing touchdown between them), I’m sitting both this week. I expect whoever gets the bigger workload will probably end up in the flex range but it’s not something I’m counting on.
Big shout out to Dare Ogunbowale who filled in for injured kicker Ka’imi Firbairn. He made a 30-yard field goal. Talk about next-man-up mentality.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Nico Collins (Start, WR3), Tank Dell (Start, WR2), Noah Brown (Start, Flex) Robert Woods (Sit), Dalton Schultz (Start, TE1)
It’s amazing to me that the Houston Texans have so many viable fantasy options in the wide receiver room. I think we start with the guys who aren’t very involved. Even though they have had spike weeks, it seems like Robert Woods and John Metchie are too low on the target depth chart to be fantasy-relevant players.
The Texans are able to create winning matchups by moving guys around the formation. It starts with Nico Collins on the outside. At 6’4” he is able to use that height to get balls that defenders can’t. He has a five-inch advantage over Cam Taylor-Brit who will be covering him most of the game. He is a good corner who rates as the 34th-best cover corner. I still think Collins will get enough work to be a solid WR3 option. He is a red zone threat which is important in a game that has shoot-out potential
Fellow rookie Tank Dell has been the other outside receiver but has been also lining up in the slot a ton. His versatility has allowed him to get open and find the end zone four times in three separate games. He will face DJ Turner for most of the game and will probably see a lot of safeties sliding his way. Turner is rated as the 77th-best corner and the best cover safety the Bengals have is Dax Hill who rates as the 48th-best. It’s a solid matchup for Dell who should continue to shine. He looks fully back after getting banged up in Week 5 which cost him Week 6 and probably wasn’t 100% for Week 7. A fully healthy Dell is easily a solid WR2 this week given the matchup.
The shocker has been how good Noah Brown was last week and recently. He is primarily the third wide receiver on the field which should limit his snaps but the Texans have had him out there over 70% of the snaps the last two weeks. He will be facing Mike Hilton this week who rates as the 30th-best coverage safety. The history for Brown isn’t great so Week 9 might have been a flash in the pan. I think he is worth a flex start this week in a potential shoot-out.
Tight end Dalton Schultz got back to his old form this past week. He had a disappointing Week 8 but that looks like more of a blip on the radar now. Schultz is playing almost 80% of the team’s snaps. He has a great matchup against the Bengals who are giving up the 4th most points to tight ends. It’s a smash this week, the matchup is there, the snaps and opportunities are there, and the game script is there. All signs point to Schultz being a high-end TE1 this week.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (Start, QB1)
If there is anyone close to as hot as Stroud it’s Joe Burrow. He has 10 touchdowns in the last four games and only two interceptions. He is completing 76% of his passes over that span. He now faces the Houston Texans who are middle of the road in terms of points surrendered to the quarterback position. Burrow should be able to carve up the defense and put the young secondaries to the hardest test they have seen. Burrow is a sure-fire QB1.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (Start, RB2)
One of the keys to winning against the Texans will be the involvement of Joe Mixon and the run game. The Texans are giving up the 10th most points to rushers. Mixon has been heavily involved. He has double-digit carries in every game and is averaging 3.89 yards per game. Mixon hasn’t been pushed by anyone else for carries. Treyveon Williams has been nothing more than a change of pace back. Mixon has also been involved in the passing game with 30 targets so far this season and nine in the past two weeks. You should be banking on Mixon as a high-end RB2 this week. Even if the game script gets to more passing his involvement there is still valuable.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
Ja’Marr Chase (Start, WR2), Tee Higgins (Start, WR2), Tyler Boyd (Sit, Flex), Irv Smith (Start, TE2)
There are questions about Ja’Marr Chase‘s availability this week after landing hard on his back last week. I expect him to try to go as the team tries to carry the momentum, stack up more wins, and work back into the AFC North divisional title race. Chase would see Steven Nelson who rates as the 18th best corner according to PFF.com. It’s a tough matchup for a wide receiver who is not 100%. I’m still starting Chase if he plays but I’m checking my expectations as he will probably be a borderline WR2/WR3 this week.
Tee Higgins has been on fire lately and is producing fantasy points even though he hasn’t gotten into the end zone. He gets a favorable matchup across from Shaquill Griffin who rates as the 73rd-best cover corner. With Chase taking the top coverage it should be a solid week for Higgins. I do expect the Texans to roll safety help over toward Higgins or possibly change it up and put Nelson on him. I still think he is a solid WR2 this week.
Tyler Boyd is not someone I’m looking to start this week. First, he hasn’t seen over 5 targets since the Week 7 bye. He is playing a good healthy snap share at over 80%. The issue since Boyd plays mainly in the slot he will see Tavierre Thomas who ranks as the 10th best cover corner according to PFF.com. With the emergence of others in the passing game and Joe Burrow spreading the ball around it’s hard to start Boyd. Sit him this week even if he is in the flex range. Shout out to my guy Andrei Iosivas who has only three receptions over the past three weeks but has two touchdowns.
Tight end Irv Smith has been a decent spot start each week and this week should be another one with an upside into the TE1 range. The Texans are giving up the 5th most points to the tight end. We saw Smith do well with minimal targets last week. He only got five targets but caught three of them and compiled 56 yards. Before last week he had seven or more targets in five out of seven games. Despite having two decent cover corners the Texans will probably have to shade them over toward the talented wide receiver group and leave the less-than-great linebackers to cover Smith. I’m rolling him out this week and expecting him to be a high-end TE2.