Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 12th at 4:05 PM ET
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale Arizona
Betting Odds: ARZ +1, 42.5 O/U total via Oddshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterbacks
Taylor Heinicke (Sit, QB2)
It seems like Taylor Heinicke might be the starter for the Atlanta Falcons for the rest of the season. Desmond Ridder appears to be healthy but has lost his job to the former Washington Commanders quarterback. In his time as a starter, Heinicke has been efficient but has never had the high-upside games you want to see from your fantasy starter. He only has one game with over two touchdowns. He also turns the ball over, with 36 touchdowns and 25 interceptions in 27 games throughout his career. He faces an Arizona Cardinals team that is giving up the 9th most points to quarterbacks, so this should be a game where Heinicke can find his groove. I still don’t expect much from him. He will have what I consider the basic quarterback stat line of 250 yards, 2 TDs, and one interception, which will put him in the QB2 range this week. Since he lacks upside, I’m not starting him unless you are desperate.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Start, RB2) Tyler Allgeier (Start, Flex)
Let’s just all accept the fact that the Falcons under Arthur Smith are going to rotate the backs. The thought that Bijan Robinson will get 15 or more carries is probably not going to happen. He is still the lead back, and that’s still an important role. He is averaging five yards per carry so the potential for him to get fantasy points on a smaller workload is there. Tyler Allgeier is still there and is going to get close to if not equal the same number of carries as Bijan. Allgeier is only averaging 3.2 yards per carry. The Cardinals are giving up the third most points to running backs currently. The game script seems to lean towards a run-heavy game so popular thinking is that Bijan could see plenty of work. We know that Arthur Smith usually doesn’t do what we think he will. I still like Bijan as a solid RB2 this week. He leads the team in routes run which is very exciting to see so that is a sneaky bonus over Allgeier. Start Bijan as an RB2 and Allgeier as a solid flex play.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, WR2) Kyle Pitts (Start, TE2) Van Jefferson (Start, flex) Everyone Else (Sit)
We need to closely monitor the status of Drake London this week. He missed last week with a groin injury but looks possible to return. If he does the Cardinals are giving up the 9th most points to wide receivers. Their top cover corner is Antonio Hamilton Sr who rates as the 63rd best overall. It’s a just matchup for a receiver that has been underwhelming. If London plays I expect him to be in the WR2 range.
Van Jefferson has been underwhelming since coming over to Atlanta. If there is a game for him to get involved this is the week. He splits his time between out wide and the slot so he will see coverage from either Marco Wilson (wide) or Garrett Wilson (slot). Neither of them rates high so Jefferson should be able to do okay. He’s a risky flex play this week. You aren’t starting any other wide receiver from the Falcons.
Kyle Pitts is an interesting play this week. He has seen consistent targets even with the quarterback change. He is getting involved as much as fantasy managers like to complain that he isn’t. He hasn’t had a massive game yet but that could be coming. I don’t think this is that week. The Cardinals are giving up the 6th fewest points to the tight end position. Pitts lines up more in the slot and out wide than he does inline so there is enough hope that he will get better matchups and still be in the high TE2 range.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback
Kyler Murray (Sit, QB2)
Kyler Murray will be making his first start since Week 14 of the 2022 season. It’s been a long-awaited return for a Cardinals team that is in limbo in regards to what the future of the quarterback position will look like. It’s a great matchup to return to. The Falcons are giving up the 5th most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Rust is the biggest concern I have for Murray. There have always been questions about his commitment, dedication, and work ethic when it comes to football so I wonder how ready he really is. The fact that they not only went with Clayton Tune last week but also traded away Joshua Dobbs seems to indicate to me that Kyler might be close to 100%. I’m a much more cautious fantasy manager and prognosticator so I’m expecting Kyler to be in the lower QB2 range this week. You can start him if you have to due to the injuries around the league but I want to find another option.
Running Backs
James Conner (Sit), Keontay Ingram (Sit)
One of the big questions this week will be if James Conner gets activated from the IR list and suits up for the Week 10 matchup. He is coming back from a knee injury which is a tough thing for a power rusher like Conner to overcome. On top of that, he is facing a defense that is giving up the 6th fewest points to running backs. Behind Conner, there has only been Keaontay Ingram. Ingram hasn’t been impressive even when given carries. There might be hope that Emari Demercado could be healthy for this game but again a very underwhelming rusher. The Cardinals are one of the worst run-blocking teams so no matter who is behind them I don’t expect a game from them this week. Sit them all.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (Start, WR3), Rondale Moore (Sit), Michael Wilson (Start, Flex), Trey McBride (Start, TE2)
The wide receiver room is lackluster outside of Marquise Brown. Hollywood has been the lead guy this year. He has seven or more targets in all but one game and has double-digit targets in four games. We know he has a connection with Murray. The issue besides the rust on Kyler which we have already talked about is that the Falcons are giving up the 12th fewest points to wide receivers as a whole. Brown will probably see coverage from A.J. Terrell. He ranks as the 53rd-best corner by PFF.com in coverage but he is better than his ranking. What’s even worse is that because there isn’t a threat elsewhere the Falcons can slide safety Jessie Bates II over to help contain Brown. Bates is ranked as the 4th best safety in coverage. I’m still willing to start Brown based on the history with Murray but I’m holding back the big game hope until we see a glimpse of it. WR3 this week.
The second receiver has been a back-and-forth between Michael Wilson and Rondale Moore. Out of the two Wilson is the only one I would consider starting if he plays. He missed last week with a shoulder injury. Moore just hasn’t been good this season. Considering he lines up as a slot receiver more than most he will get tough coverage from Dee Alford. Out wide Jeff Okudah is the corner, who rates as the 74th-best corner. If Wilson plays it’s an okay matchup but I’m just not high on the Cardinal’s pass catchers. More so I’m down on the quarterback play. Wilson can be a solid flex play if needed. Moore should be sat.
Tight end Trey McBride has been good the past few weeks since Zach Ertz has gotten hurt. Now that there is a change in quarterback he looks to continue that. We have seen Kyler be good for a tight end and especially this first week he could be a quick out for Murray as he gets back in game shape. The Falcons are middle of the road in terms of giving up points to the tight end position. I’m starting McBride this week as a TE2 with a really good chance to jump into the TE1 range.