Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 12 at 1:00 PM EST
Location: U.S Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Odds: NO -2.5 O/U 41 Total via PFF.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
New Orleans Saints
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr (Start, QB2)
I hope Derek Carr had a nice warm feeling in his tummy watching Josh McDaniels get drilled out of Las Vegas like a card counter at the Bellagio; he deserves that feeling after getting chased out of there from the moment the Human Visor got there. I hope he then got right back to trying to figure out how to win games because so far, he’s kind of the same 50/50 guy he was in most of his later Raider life. Carr is a decent guy, but as a quarterback for a fantasy squad or an NFL team, he’s pretty meh. A good game here, a bomb there, he’s fine.
Over the past month, Carr has tossed 6 touchdowns and averaged a little under 294 yards a game. Impressive on the surface, but not particularly record-shattering stuff here as he compiled those numbers against the Bears, Colts, Jaguars, and Texans – all four teams living in the basement apartment of Bottom 10 passing defenses. The Vikings are sitting at 18th overall on that same ranking, which is statistically better, if not by a large leap…I’d expect the same high-2oos, 1-2 touchdowns again this week. Carr might be the ideal “safe bench quarterback” in fantasy this year – break glass in case of emergency, but go with the first guy you drafted, or the hot hand new thing you picked up in Week 2 or 3 first.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB2), Jamaal Williams (Drop)
So Taysom Hill (see below) is screwing up New Orleans fantasy stats once again, and god bless him, he’s cutting into Alvin Kamara this time around. What a treat! Anyhow, last week Kamara saw nine carries for 26 yards, plus an additional 44 yards on 4-for-5 receiving. Is this terrible? Maybe not abysmal, but did you put Alvin in against the freaking BEARS and assume you weren’t going to have to leave your home theater and go cry quietly in the bathroom? You know you did. A man (or woman) should be allowed one or two good things in a week, and Alvin Kamara stomping on the Bears should have been your God-given right.
Meanwhile, Taysom beat out Kamara on carries (11) and yards (52). Good for that bottom-dweller in your league who is already pulling out the gimmick card and spoiling others’ plans. It’s Christmas come early for you people. Enjoy some early coal you jerks. Anyhow, you can’t sit Kamara, and while Minnesota is a tougher go than Chicago (currently the Vikings are twelfth against the run, allowing seven touchdowns), he’s a must-go. Can’t put him in his earned RB1 slot though, because Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael don’t want you to have nice things. And if Hill is damaging Kamara’s value, he’s also made Jamaal Williams thoroughly droppable. Though, I suppose Jamaal himself hasn’t made any argument against that all year anyway.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, WR2), Michael Thomas (Start, Flex), Rashid Shaheed (Sit), Juwan Johnson (Keep Sitting Him) Taysom Hill (Start, TE1)
This is a great matchup for Chris Olave, against a Minnesota pass defense currently riding in at 18th in the league. While his end zone visits have been few and far between to this point, he’s nonetheless the focal point of the passing game and is an every-week start. While the frustration is understandable as the infrequency of touchdowns makes three consecutive weeks under 6o yards much less efficient in your fantasy championship plans, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt here with a low-end WR2 recommendation against a less-formidable Vikings secondary.
The last time I covered a Saints game, I noted that Michael Thomas was one of the most consistent performers at his position that I’d seen this year – and I’ll mark last week’s complete disappearance from the face of the Earth as an anomaly. He’s not putting in spectacular Prime MT games, but he’s older and still on the comeback trail. As for the Bears game, Maybe it was due to a sickness he’d been wrestling with earlier in the week, but zero catches on one target absolutely contributed to some fellas getting narrowly heaved out of their guillotine leagues last week. Against a mediocre defense, I still like him in the flex expecting his usual 4-5 catches for roughly 50 yards. Sometimes consistency is nice, and it’s scary when it disappears for a week.
Despite his blowup outing against the Colts two weeks ago, Rashid Shaheed has lost target share in the past half month (only seeing 3 in consecutive weeks). That Indy game was tremendous, but it wasn’t a rule to live by. I need to see more consistent usage (and success) from Shaheed before I can put him in a line-up as anything but a high-ceiling wild card. We finally had a Juwan Johnson sighting last week, but it was still only 29 yards on 5 receptions and his first score of the season. No need to get excited or run to that waiver wire yet. So that brings us to the king of gimmick usage – and a guy you got real cheap on a lark most likely. I put Taysom Hill, the only guy in bold lettering TWICE in this article, as a TE 1 because, well, he’s seen the endzone at least once per game for a straight month now, has seen a significant increase in usage and success in the running game (52 and 63 yards in the past two games), and still catches a couple-three balls weekly as well. He’s got TE1 numbers, even if he isn’t getting them the Tight End Way. There is a strong chance you already have a good starting tight end, and picked up Taysom like we all do – the ‘what if?’ component. Perfect, put him in your flex and laugh heartily.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterbacks
Josh Dobbs (Sit, QB2)
I don’t know? Joshua Dobbs won the Vikings a game last week, that I don’t think the guy he replaced, or the guy the replacement replaced, could’ve come back and won, and he didn’t even know anybody’s name. That’s super wild and a metric ton of fun from the fan perspective, but did we learn anything, really? I’m not confident that even ‘maybe’ is an honest answer here. I don’t think there’s much validity in digging data from last week, as Dobbs legitimately was making things happen on dreams and improbabilities as he went along. His time in Arizona is hardly a fair measure here either as that’s a completely different set of, well, everything. There’s entirely too much unknown here, as Dobbs doesn’t even play a similar style to Kirk Cousins from what I’ve watched, and I don’t believe Wes Phillips went out and designed a whole new offense in two weeks, so we’re still looking at how he fits into the existing Vikings approach. From a defensive standpoint, the Saints rank right in the same range as last week’s opponent, the Atlanta Falcons – the Saints sit at 7th overall (7th in pass defense, 17th against the run), the Falcons 6th overall (10th against the pass, 14th against the run). While it’s a terrific one-week story, I cannot believe given a week of actual preparation for the transplanted Dobbs, that New Orleans, already a tough go of it for the opposition, isn’t going to kill the buzz quite a bit this week.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison (Start, Flex), Ty Chandler (Sit)
While I don’t recommend jumping on board the Dobbs train for this week, I will note this: he was easily the Vikings’ most effective runner last week, and even though Alexander Mattison is sure to carry a dominant workload this week with Cam Akers out, and his new backup is Ty Chandler? Is that a guy? Let’s go with it. Anyway, while Chandler may see an increase over his season-high of 3 carries this week, it’s worth keeping in mind that the Vikings traded for Akers to keep Chandler from filling the role that he now finds himself in.
Mattison is going to be the only running back on this team that will be worth fantasy consideration…but as a straight-up rushing threat goes, he is a garbage diaper. Okay, so last week, Mattison compiled 93 all-purpose yards and a score, so that’s something. However, in the picture at large, he hasn’t gone over fifty yards on the ground since Week 4, has only 3 touchdowns on the season (all receiving), and mustered those 49 additional receiving yards last week on 2 targets, one being a 47-yard catch capitalizing on blown coverage by Jeff Okudah. I know there are not a ton of options out there, and if a guy’s clearly in a single-back situation like Mattison, he’s a Start. There will always be that chance for one big play that changes your week, but Mattison doesn’t provide that often, or consistently enough, to recommend higher than a flex against a formidable defense again this week.
Wide Receivers/ Tight End
Jordan Addison (Start, WR3), K.J. Osborn* (Sit), Brandon Powell** (Sit, Flex), TJ Hockenson (Start, TE1)
As with everybody on this team, we still need a little more cooking time to get a good idea of how the Josh Dobbs flavor is going to impact all the key ingredients in this Minnesota hot dish. But so far, it’s a promising peek through the oven door. Let’s sift through what we can see from a week that was completely compiled from sense and feel, and not off the recipe card they brought out.
T. J. Hockenson remains a Top 3 Tight End, and it doesn’t seem to matter who’s chucking him balls this year: Dobbs looked his way a ton last week. Hock saw twelve targets overall and caught seven of them, putting up 69 yards for his shareholders in the process. Expect more of the same this week as T. J. continues his campaign to become Josh’s new best friend. Jordan Addison continued to be the primary beneficiary of Justin Jefferson‘s time on the rehabilitation path, seeing another seven targets, converting nine, and putting 52 up on the tote board. It should be noted that last week was the first time in five weeks that Addison didn’t also end up with one in the endzone, so I would look for a return; Dobbs will be likely to tune in early with the rookie who is already producing good results with him. ‘
KJ Osborn had been seeing a more consistent increase in usage (and success) until he was destroyed last week in a terrible sandwiching. Osborn hasn’t returned to practice yet this week and is working through concussion protocol. Considering the severity of the hit, I wouldn’t expect to see him in uniform this week, and even if through some miraculous act of the gods he suits up this week, one would logically surmise he’d be seeing limited usage in a bad matchup for even a healthy Osborn. Brandon Powell caught his first touchdown last week but has only seen three targets in the last two games. If Osborn sits, which he likely will, I’d expect to see Powell see a least a couple more looks, and might roll the dice on him in a flex situation if you’re getting pretty depleted and desperate: he’s only rostered on 5% of teams on Sleeper, so he’s available if you’re down bad. Just keep in mind, 95 percent of team owners have left him on the roadside for reasons.
* Injured
**Dependent on Osborn game designation