Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 12th, 9:30 AM ET
Location: Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt Germany
Betting Odds: IND -2, 43.5 total via Odds Shark
Network: NFL Network
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew (Start, QB2)
There isn’t much to be excited about if you’re starting Gardner Minshew, but he could be a viable option this week in 2QB and superflex formats. The veteran journeyman is far from an elite starting quarterback as evidenced by his five interceptions and three fumbles over the last four weeks. He also has a PFF grade of 51.0 which ranks 44th out of 59 QBs. So, why is he a decent starting option? The Patriots secondary is simply a shell of its former self. Jack Jones and J.C Jackson have had their playing time cut drastically due to performance issues (and potentially off-the-field issues as well), and Myles Bryant has seen an increased role because of it. The problem: Myles Bryant is only the 134th highest-graded cover corner by PFF this year. The defense as a whole is ranked fifth worst in coverage and third worst in pass rush by PFF. Minshew isn’t a smash play by any means, but he can contribute QB2 numbers in this favorable matchup.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Start, RB1), Zack Moss (Sit)
We may have finally seen Jonathan Taylor take over this backfield for good last week. The star running back out-snapped Zack Moss 45 to 13 and out-touched him 23 to seven in the Colts’ win over Carolina. It appears that Taylor has regained bell cow status (or at least close to it) and is the centerpiece of this offense again. The Patriots’ defense is falling apart and has allowed over 20 fantasy points to the running back position three weeks in a row in PPR formats. If Taylor continues to get heavy usage, he could be in for a huge day in Germany. As impressive as Zack Moss has been this season, it may be wise to hold him out of your starting lineup until he regains sufficient involvement in the offense (if that ever happens again).
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Pittman Jr. (Start, WR2), Josh Downs (Sit), Alec Pierce (Sit), Kylen Granson (Sit)
Despite questionable quarterback play, Michael Pittman Jr. has been as reliable and consistent as they come this season. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in PPR leagues in eight out of nine weeks this year, and he’s recorded at least eight receptions in three of his last four games. He hasn’t had many incredible boom performances, but he’s done enough to be trusted as a WR2 or WR3. This week, I would count on him to be a high-end WR2, given the matchup. The Patriots have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. PFF ranks Pittman’s matchup with the New England secondary as the eleventh most favorable of all receivers in Week 10. He shouldn’t have a problem beating Jack Jones and Jonathan Jones in coverage. Minshew does hold Pittman back to a certain extent, but the talented receiver is still a great WR2.
Josh Downs is looking unlikely to suit up on Sunday which would obviously remove him from starting consideration. Even if he does end up playing, I would suggest going in a different direction given the rookie will be playing on an injured knee and could be solely used as a decoy. Similarly, Alec Pierce should remain firmly on your bench. He somehow managed to play 100% of offensive snaps last week and still didn’t record a single reception. It doesn’t matter how frequently he’s on the field, his meager production renders him a non-factor in fantasy.
Speaking of Colts pass catchers who recorded zero receptions on two targets last week, Kylen Granson is not somebody worth starting. Neither he nor any other tight end on this roster has a significant, steady role that’s worthy of consideration for fantasy squads.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Mac Jones (Sit)
The Colts’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack in just about every metric. It’s fair to think that a mediocre defense would present QB2 opportunity for just about any starting quarterback in the league, but that simply isn’t the case with Mac Jones and the Patriots. Jones offers no upside has a runner and has been dreadful as a passer this season. He has averaged just 207 passing yards per game and has more turnovers than touchdowns on the year. It goes without saying that the third-year QB belongs as far away from your lineup as possible.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (Start, RB2), Ezekiel Elloitt (Sit)
We finally witnessed an elite fantasy outing from Rhamondre Stevenson last week. It gave reason to regain confidence in Stevenson, but it’s worth noting that the bulk of his production came on one play. Remove his 64-yard touchdown scamper and he had 65 scoreless yards against Washington, which would have been good for 10.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. However, we can’t pretend that his big play didn’t exist; it happened, and that exhibition of explosiveness will rekindle interest in his prospects over the second half of the season for many fantasy managers.
However, Stevenson only out-touched Ezekiel Elliott thirteen to nine despite a much larger discrepancy in their yardage. Yet while there is still plenty of reason to be concerned about Stevenson, the Colts have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this year and have let up over 20 points to the position each of the last six weeks. Stevenson still has the talent and usage to capitalize on the matchup and produce RB2 numbers.
Although Elliott has been involved, this offense isn’t nearly effective enough to produce two trustworthy running backs from a fantasy perspective. He can remain on the bench.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Demario Douglas (Start, Flex), DeVante Parker (Sit), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Sit), Hunter Henry (Start, TE2), Mike Gesicki (Sit)
It has been a year of misery and disappointment for the New England Patriots, especially on the offensive side of the ball. One of the only pleasant surprises has been sixth-round rookie Demario “Pop” Douglas. The eye test will tell you that he is the best receiver on the Patriots, and the numbers are starting to say the same. Douglas has led New England WRs in offensive snaps for two weeks in a row now and has recorded five receptions on seven targets in each of those games. The Patriots are perhaps the least exciting team to have the top receiver for, but he is the top receiver on an NFL team nonetheless. Douglas will likely draw coverage from Kenny Moore II in the slot which is concerning given Moore’s success this year, but Douglas should see enough volume to keep him in flex territory.
The rest of the Patriots receivers are (and I say this lovingly as a Patriots fan) hot, wet garbage. DeVante Parker looks likely to return from his concussion in Week 10, but he’s recorded more than two receptions in a game just once this year. JuJu Smith-Schuster started the year as the team’s WR1 but has been significantly phased out. He did have a season-high six receptions last week, but he only played 36% of offensive snaps and figures to play even fewer going forward with the return of Parker. There is no reason to trust a New England receiver other than Douglas.
The tight ends, particularly Hunter Henry, have been a small bright spot for this offense. The Colts have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, which means Henry should take advantage of this great matchup. In fact, he has the second-best matchup advantage this week of all tight ends, according to PFF. The upside is there for Henry, but the offense as a whole has struggled to stay on the field which reduces some of that upside. He can be treated as a high-end TE2 or a low-end TE1. Mike Gesicki is nothing more than a touchdown or bust dart throw who should probably remain out of your lineup.