Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 12th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Betting Odds: BAL -6, O/U 38 via OddsShark
Network: Fox
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson (Start, QB2)
Deshaun Watson and the Browns took care of business last week against the Cardinals, as they should have. Watson put together one of his better performances of the season, finishing as QB8 on the week. Even more importantly, he finally looked healthy from his shoulder injury sustained in Week 3. He had a few perfect strikes downfield and did not appear to be afraid of contact, which is exactly what you hope to see from your fully guaranteed $250 million QB.
Unfortunately for Watson, this week poses a much bigger challenge against the league’s top-ranked passing defense. Although the game script favors Watson, the Browns have the second-lowest team-implied point total this week, currently sitting at 16. Watson has the talent to be a QB1 every week, which does make him a reasonable streaming option with four teams on bye, but I have little confidence in him returning QB1 value this week. Watson can be treated as a QB2 against the Ravens.
For what it’s worth, heavy money (the “sharp” bettors) has already come in on Baltimore, pushing the line from -4.5 to -6 in the first few hours of opening. You can watch these changes on the link above.
on a ROPE! can't toss it any better than that 🏹#AZvsCLE on CBS & NFL+ pic.twitter.com/xZEN4yve5U
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 5, 2023
Running Backs
Jerome Ford (Start, RB2), Kareem Hunt (Sit, FLEX), Pierre Strong (Sit)
Jerome Ford reclaimed this backfield last week, turning 25 touches into 77 yards. He appears to be magically over the high-ankle sprain he suffered in Week 7, despite somehow missing no time. You have to be excited about any RB with 15-20 guaranteed touches, but I think Ford will struggle to find running room this week against the Ravens; they come into this week ranking 7th in PPG to opposing fantasy RBs, and just dismantled the Seattle RB room to the tune of 22 yards on 13 carries. I do expect this to be a closer game, and assume the Browns will have a little more success behind one of the league’s top offensive lines, making Ford a volume-based RB2 this week.
Kareem Hunt returned to the backup role last week, however still getting 14 carries on the day. Game script played into this, but his volume has been impressive in his return to Cleveland. Hunt feels poised to get another 6-8 touches this week and has been seeing goal-line carries, but against this Ravens’ defense in a low-scoring matchup, his floor feels too low for me.
After an 11-touch, 82-yard performance two weeks ago, many were expecting Pierre Strong to take over the RB2 role in this offense, but that was not the case last week. Even with the perfect game script to give your young RB some playing time, Strong only received four touches for nine yards. Keep an eye on his usage in deeper leagues, but he is a sit for now.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amari Cooper (Start, WR3), Elijah Moore (Sit), Cedrick Tillman (Sit), David Njoku (Start, High-TE2)
Amari Cooper seemed to appreciate Watson’s return to health, turning five receptions into 139 yards and one TD against the Cardinals. Was the touchdown silly? Absolutely. But he still would have had a solid day without it.
This week, Cooper goes against the 3rd ranked defense in PPG to opposing WRs, who held him to 16 yards on one reception (four targets) the last time these two teams faced in Week 4. As the clear number one receiving option averaging 7.9 targets/game, we’d be hard-pressed not to start Cooper, but my expectations are tempered in this defensive showdown.
just how we drew it up 🤷♂️#ARIvsCLE on CBS & NFL+ pic.twitter.com/M4DtPIlzd5
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 5, 2023
After being heavily involved and schemed into the early-season game plan, Elijah Moore’s usage has seen a disappointing downtick over the past two weeks. Through the first six weeks, Moore was earning 5.5 touches and 40 yards/game. However, he has only received two touches in each of the past two contests and has not topped 30 yards in either. Moore’s talent still makes him worth a stash in deeper leagues, but this usage trend is discouraging, to say the least.
Cedric Tillman received a promotion after the Browns shipped Donovan Peoples-Jones to the Lions, and it was encouraging to see him outsnap Elijah Moore last week 74 percent to 62 percent. However, he drew only three targets that yielded only one reception for 11 yards. He is a name to watch in deeper leagues but is not in the conversation this week.
David Njoku has come back to life as of late, averaging 7.7 targets/game over the past three weeks, and touchdowns in each of the past two. Just like in every other category, Baltimore comes in ranking 3rd in PPG to opposing TEs. Volume and red zone looks keep Njoku in low-TE1 territory every week, but his floor may be a little lower than in previous weeks. Njoku is a low-TE1 / high-TE2 this week.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson (Start, Low-QB1)
The Baltimore Ravens have been making a statement with four straight wins, and holding the vaunted Lions and Seahawks offenses to a combined nine points. What is most impressive from this team is that they are winning in a variety of ways.
They are winning on the back of top-tier passing performances from Lamar Jackson. They are winning because of dominant defensive performances. They are winning in the trenches, leading to the emergence of Keaton Mitchell and Gus Edwards, the overall RB1 (even in PPR) in the past three weeks. They are arguably the league’s most complete team at this very moment.
Now, on paper, this is not a good matchup for Lamar. Baltimore comes in as number one in PPG to opposing QBs, but Cleveland comes in at number two. These two teams know each other very well, and both boast juggernaut defenses, which screams a classic defensive showdown. I expect this to be a slugfest, but I feel safer with Baltimore’s team-implied point total sitting a bit higher at 22. Lamar’s ceiling may not be as high this week, but he is still the QB4 on the season, despite not being asked to do much of anything the past two weeks. If I have Lamar, I’m starting him every week, regardless of matchup and despite whatever Eric Mangini is preaching these days.
Former NFL head coach Eric Mangini on Lamar Jackson:
"I love his completion percentage, I think it's fantastic. I don't love his nine touchdowns. … In his MVP year, he had 36 touchdowns. … The reason I'm coming around on Baltimore is what they're doing defensively, not what… pic.twitter.com/6DBPJDdMQq
— Bobby Trosset (@bobbybaltim0re) November 7, 2023
Running Backs
Gus Edwards (Sit, FLEX), Keaton Mitchell (Sit, FLEX), Justice Hill (Sit)
I’m sure that everyone wants to start with Mitchell after his breakout performance, but I’d prefer to start with fantasy’s unsung hero over the past three weeks. Ladies and gentlemen, your RB1, Gus Edwards! Although he did take a backseat to Mitchell in regards to touches last week, he still did his best Jerome Bettis impression with two touchdowns on five carries, averaging 10.4 YPC on the day. You go, Gus! It has been an impressive run. This week, however, I believe he will finally be regressing to the mean against Cleveland’s 4th-ranked rushing defense. Despite the emergence of Mitchell, I still expect Edwards to lead the team in carries and get the goal-line work, making him a low-floor FLEX option. However, I’m probably looking for upside plays elsewhere if I can.
Keaton Mitchell burst onto the scene last week, taking nine carries for 138 yards and one touchdown. It was the performance our Reddit fans have been waiting for all year. Mitchell looks fully healthy from his Injured Reserve stint and is clearly the most explosive player in that backfield. However, that sort of efficiency will be difficult to replicate this week. I know many are expecting him to take over this backfield, and I definitely expect the Ravens to continue getting him involved, but I don’t think a full workload will ever be in the cards for the 5’8″, 192-pound back. He still only played 18 percent of snaps last week, which is not a stat I’m ready to put into starting lineups yet. Especially not against the Browns. It’s too risky for me, but if you want to shoot for the moon, he has already shown he can take any play to the house. He is a very low-floor, high-ceiling option this week.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN I WOULD LIKE TO FORMALLY WELCOME YOU TO KEATON MITCHELL SEASON… BUCKLE UP. pic.twitter.com/1Mzzx0FW2z
— Zach Bollinger (@zachbollinger18) November 5, 2023
Justice Hill has shown flashes this season but has never fully put it together. He had the most carries and highest snap percentage last week (63 percent), but a lot of it was later in the game. Worse, he now has an emerging threat for touches in what was already a bad matchup. Keep him on the bench.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Zay Flowers (Start, WR3), Odell Beckham Jr. (Sit, FLEX), Rashod Bateman (Sit), Nelson Agholor (Sit), Mark Andrews (Start, TE1)
At times, Zay Flowers looks like he could be the league’s next Tyreek Hill, but that unfortunately hasn’t panned out for fantasy purposes so far. Flowers is coming off a one-reception performance last week, but I expect that to be different this week when the Baltimore offense will be forced to…actually try. None of his individual matchups are particularly appealing this week, but Flowers is averaging 7.6 targets/game and is the most electric player in this receiving core. His volume and designed touches give him a high floor, but his ceiling is also low this week against the league’s 4th-ranked scoring defense to opposing WRs. Flowers is a volume-based WR3 this week.
INSANE: #Ravens rookie WR Zay Flowers broke Devon Witherspoon’s ankle’s with his change of direction
🤯🤯🤯
This kid is something I’ve never seen before, SPECIAL talent.
(🎥@elitetakes_) pic.twitter.com/JTgAuCi9jC
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) November 6, 2023
Odell Beckham scored his first touchdown as a Baltimore Raven last week, thanks to backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. Beckham has been inconsistent but is looking stronger and healthier each game. He is averaging 5.5 targets/game over the past four weeks and seems to be establishing himself as the team’s third receiving option. Despite the tempting “revenge game” storyline, he is not worth starting this week in a tough matchup, but he’s certainly worth monitoring as the season goes on.
Rashod Bateman ranks second on the team in snap percentage, seeing the field on 54 percent of plays over the past four weeks, but has taken a distant seat from fantasy relevance this season. He is still getting targets, but with a single-game high of 36 yards this season, there is no reason to consider him unless something changes drastically. Meanwhile, Nelson Agholor is playing the lowest snap percentage of anyone in this WR room and is also not worthy of consideration in traditional leagues.
Mark Andrews, however, is very much in consideration. In fact, he is always in consideration. Echoing the theme for everybody else in this game, this isn’t a great matchup for Andrews: Cleveland is ranked 2nd in scoring to opposing TEs…but whatever. Just start Mark Andrews. He’s about as good as they get at the scarcest position in fantasy football.
Isaiah Likely has been curiously hidden this year, playing just 29 percent of snaps after an impressive rookie season. It was nice to see him more involved last week with an extremely efficient four receptions on nine routes run, but he’s not seeing the field enough at this point in time. A strong tight end handcuff for those rostering Andrews with ample bench room, Likely has been relegated to an afterthought in this Todd Monken offense.
– Nick Beaudoin