Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 11th, 2023, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Betting Odds: ATL Even, 41.5 o/u total via Oddshark.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Start, QB2*), Jameis Winston (Sit, but if Carr is OUT: Start, QB2)
Derek Carr left the Week 10 game with a concussion so hopefully with the extra rest coming out of the bye he will be ready to play; as of press time, he had yet to be cleared from the league’s concussion protocol. If he can’t go, it will be Jameis Winston. who is as rock-solid as they come in terms of backup quarterbacks in fantasy. Either way, the result should be virtually the same: the Atlanta Falcons are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. It’s a great matchup for the New Orleans Saints to take advantage of, even more so with the extra time to prepare. I expect either Carr or Winston to be a solid QB2 this week.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1), Kendre Miller (Sit) Jamaal Williams (Sit)
This week poses a tough matchup for the trio of Saints running backs. First off, the Falcons are giving up the 3rd fewest points to running backs. It will be worth monitoring rookie Kendre Miller, who missed Week 10 with an ankle injury. I expect that with extra rest, he should be able to go. Even if he does, he has yet to play more than 36 percent of the snaps and hasn’t been on the field for more than 25 percent since Jamaal Williams came back in Week 7. Even if he is healthy, he isn’t worth starting: he has been a letdown this year after leading the league in rushing touchdowns last season. He has looked slow and ineffective. Combine that with the tough matchup, and he isn’t worth the risk in crucial fantasy matchups.
Alvin Kamara is the only rusher worth starting. The question is what his involvement will be. Pure rushing has never been Kamara’s strength. A lot of his value comes from his involvement in the passing game. Kamara is currently leading the league in running back targets and receptions despite missing the first three games. With that extra work, it doesn’t matter how many carries he gets or how tough the rush defense is. Kamara is one of the safest options at running back. Start him as a solid RB1.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, high-end WR3), Rashid Shaheed (Start, FLEX), A.T. Perry (Sit), Juwan Johnson (Start, TE2) Taysom Hill (Start, FLEX)
Let’s start with Michael Thomas, who was placed on Injured Reserve this week after sustaining a significant hamstring injury in Week 10. In his place, A.T. Perry stepped up and played a snap share north of 80 percent and hauled in an impressive contested touchdown grab in the red zone. Perry is a very big receiver but he is still young and developing. He has “boom or bust” written all over him, at least this year, so I’m not starting him this week. Chris Olave should be the top receiver on the team but has dealt with some low-yardage games despite seeing a healthy target share. This week he’ll inherit tough coverage, most likely from A.J. Terrell, who ranks as the 35th best corner. In the two games last season, Olave was held in check. Olave is still worth starting but I have him as a high-end WR3 this week with upside for more.
Rasheed Shaheed has been the deep ball threat for the Saints and represents another boom-bust play this week. Shaheed will draw primary coverage from Jeff Okudah but will see help from safety Jesse Bates III, who rates as the 8th best cover safety. Unlike Perry, Shaheed has consistently demonstrated his ability to be efficient with limited targets, so he’s more likely to get into flex range with one play. I think the Saints will get creative after having an extra week to prepare; they know Shaheed has speed and is dangerous with the ball in his hands; while I have him as a solid flex play, he offers massive upside.
At the tight end position, there is no way we’re benching Taysom Hill except in weird leagues where he has only quarterback eligibility. Hill gets involved in every aspect of the offense and is a threat to produce points on multiple fronts. Juwan Johnson is an interesting play. The Falcons are giving up the 8th most points to tight ends. Johnson came back a few weeks ago from injury and looked sluggish, but he should now be fully healthy and able to provide a solid target option for Carr. Linebacker Nate Landman is out there and is very good in coverage but he may have to worry about Hill. Start Johnson as a TE2.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterbacks
Desmond Ridder (Sit, QB2)
Taylor Heinicke left his Week 10 game late with a hamstring injury, so it’s unclear if it’s that or something else that has caused Arthur Smith and the Falcons to go back to Desmond Ridder as the starter. The bye week certainly allowed Ridder time to get back in the saddle. It’s a middle-of-the-road matchup for Ridder so I expect him to perform reasonably well. Hopefully, the extra time allows them to implement plays that fit his skill set better and involve some of the top-end receiving talent. While Ridder has been the guy for most of the season, he lacks any big game upside. I think he is a low-end QB2 this week; with no one on bye, you should be able to find a better option.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Start, RB2) Tyler Allgeier (Sit, FLEX)
We finally saw it! We finally got a game in which Bijan Robinson got the bulk of the carries. In Week 10 he got 22 carries rushing for 95 yards and a touchdown. It was kind of expected given the solid matchup against a weak run defense. This week is almost the exact opposite, however. The Falcons are playing the New Orleans Saints, who are currently giving up the 8th fewest points to the running back position. The Falcons will have to find another way to move the ball and will probably go back to rotating between Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. After all, even with Robinson getting 22 carries the Dirty Birds still lost the game. They are coming off the bye week so they have had extra time to plan and prepare. We’re starting Robinson as a solid RB2 with upside; he is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Allgeier is a risky flex-start. He is playing fewer than 30 percent of the total snaps, and with a tough matchup, there could be fewer total opportunities to go around.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, Flex) Kyle Pitts (Start, TE2) Jonnu Smith (Start, TE2) Everyone Else (Sit)
The leading receiver in terms of targets for the Falcons is Drake London. He has been the only consistent guy on the field out of this receiving group. He usually plays on over 80 percent of the team’s snaps. The issue is that he has the worst matchup this week. He will probably be shadowed by the top-rated corner Paulson Adebo. London plays out wide 75 percent of the time, but even if the Falcons move him into the slot, Adebo could follow. With a tough matchup, I’m not trusting London this week. He probably gets a few snaps away from Adebo which should be enough to get him into flex range; if you want to start him there, you can.
The other receivers don’t leave us excited. Isaac Yiadom on the other side has a grade of 81.9 in coverage but hasn’t played enough snaps to rank on their list. If he did, he would rank very high. In the slot, Alontae Taylor lurks, who ranks as the 88th best corner but has played very well when called upon. Combine that with the lack of real talent at the wide receiver position, and there’s nothing here to make our eyes pop. Van Jefferson hasn’t produced since coming over from the Los Angeles Rams. KhaDarel Hodge and Scott Miller only have one game with a snap share of over 50 percent between the two of them. None should be rostered except for those playing in very deep leagues.
The tight end conundrum continues this week. Will it be Kyle Pitts or Jonnu Smith? It’s a good matchup for both. The Saints are giving up the 10th most points to tight ends. This one comes down to coverage. It’s nice that Pitts has been running more routes and lining up outside at a higher rate than Smith. The issue: safety Tyrann Mathieu will most likely be on him. He rates as the 19th best cover safety, so it’s a tough matchup for Pitts. I think he is a decent low-end TE2/Flex play this week. I’m really interested in what Jonnu Smith can do this week; he has been very good all season. It depends on how much the Falcons can get him off coverage from linebacker Demario Davis. In the Saints base defense, he plays more middle linebacker but in nickel and dime sets, he slides more towards the hash marks. I think Smith can do well this week; he should finish as a solid TE2 with upside for more if he can manage to score.