Game Info
Kickoff: Friday, November 24th, 3:00 PM EST
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Betting Odds: MIA -10, 41 total via Odds Shark
Network: Prime Video
Writer: Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)
Miami Dolphins
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (Start, QB1)
Tua Tagovailoa was by far the most underrated quarterback heading into this season. What better way to respond to these haters than averaging 18.3 PPG. As things stand right now, Tagovailoa is the QB9 on a PPG basis and should remain a weekly starter. The only concern I have for Tagovailoa is the game script. With the Miami Dolphins favored by 10 points, it’s unlikely that they’ll throw the ball very much. The New York Jets are also fairly tough on quarterbacks in fantasy, allowing the 6th fewest points in the league (12.31 PPG). Tua may not finish as a Top 5 option this week, but should still serve as a low-end QB1.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert (Start, RB2), De’Von Achane (Start, RB2*), Jeff Wilson (Sit*; Start, Flex if Achane is OUT)
With what we know right now, it’s difficult to accurately predict how this Dolphins running back room will shake out in Week 12. For these rankings, I will be operating under the assumption that De’Von Achane plays. Even if the Dolphins limit Achane, he still has the efficiency to finish as a low-end RB2. The fact that the Dolphins should run the ball a ton this game may force him to touch the ball more than expected. I still have Raheem Mostert as a high-end RB2 for the week. I can’t rank him much higher than this, even though it’s a great game script. We’ve likely seen the best games of the season from the 31-year-old Mostert, who is starting to fall off from a production standpoint.
It’s also worth noting that the Jets have allowed the 16th most fantasy points to running backs, 22 PPG. Although Jeff Wilson is one of my fantasy football playoff legends, he shouldn’t be in your lineup this week if Achane is a full go. However, if Achane misses time, Wilson should absolutely be flexworthy due to the projected game script.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR2), Cedrick Wilson (Sit), Durham Smythe (Sit)
There isn’t much to say about Tyreek Hill; just be thankful if you drafted him this year. Hill is a start no matter what, and he’s a guaranteed Top 3 option every week. The only reason he’s not my WR1 overall is because the Dolphins should blow out the Jets. That said, according to PFF, Hill has a good cornerback matchup this week. Against all defenders, his projected matchup score is 65.9. Although the Jets have allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season (27.98 PPG), I’m not worried.
Jaylen Waddle has been pretty disappointing this season, averaging 13.4 PPG. While this doesn’t look bad on the surface, he was being drafted as the WR11, according to FanasyPros. There are also a few red flags this week with Waddle. As I mentioned before, this isn’t going to be a game with a ton of passing volume for the Dolphins. To make matters worse, Waddle has a matchup advantage score of 44.7 which is “below average.” We’re still starting Waddle as a mid-WR2 because of the talent but he’s not in a great position to explode this week.
With Cedrick Wilson, I don’t have much to say. You shouldn’t be starting him almost ever outside of an injury or a great matchup. Wilson has a horrendous matchup advantage score of 18 which is considered “poor;” I would agree. I’m not a big fan of Durham Smythe, and seeing that he’s on the DNP list, that doesn’t make me feel great. This isn’t a good game script for passing volume, and nothing else is going Smythe’s way. Smythe is averaging 3.8 PPG, which should tell you all you need to know. Sit him.
New York Jets
Quarterback
Tim Boyle (Sit)
It finally happened: the Jets turned away from Zach Wilson. Not only was Wilson benched but he’s now the third-string quarterback. Although many people don’t like Wilson, I honestly feel bad for the guy. After his horrible attitude last year, he’s shown accountability and has tried to improve as a leader. On to Tim Boyle, and this should be a quick discussion. Please don’t play him. In limited action, Boyle has finished more seasons with negative fantasy points than positive. That should tell you everything you need to know. It wouldn’t be a stretch to expect Trevor Siemian to be under center for the Jets in Week 13.
Running Backs
Breece Hall (Start, RB2), Dalvin Cook (Sit)
As bad as this Jets offense is, Breece Hall is still a no-brainer to feature in lineups because of his talent and workload. It’s hard to find a running back in this day and age that checks both boxes, but Hall does. He is the clear pass catcher in the backfield, and I assume Boyle will find him in the flats throughout the game. The Dolphins have allowed the 17th most points to running backs with 21.87 PPG. Hall has the upside to be an RB1 rest of the season, but I’d pump the brakes this week because of his horrible matchup.
Dalvin Cook is officially cooked. There has been talk about getting him more involved, but after watching him touch the ball twice last week, I’m out. Cook has simply been bad, averaging 3.3 YPC and a paltry 2.9 PPG. Cook doesn’t operate as the pass-catching back in this offense, so this is the worst possible situation for him. In a game where the Jets are heavy underdogs, I wouldn’t be surprised if Cook only sees limited action in garbage time (if any work at all).
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson (Start, WR3), Allen Lazard (Sit), Xavier Gipson (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Sit, TE2)
Watching Garrett Wilson last week was simply painful. Even though he drew eight targets, Wilson finished the game with 0.9 points. This isn’t Wilson’s fault at all, and it just sucks that his quarterback play has been terrible. However, even with the quarterback switch, I don’t see this changing. The increased passing volume should help Wilson, but other than that, there isn’t much going for him. He has a matchup advantage score of 52.9, which is “average.” The Dolphins have allowed the 5th least fantasy points to wide receivers, 26.67 PPG. This just adds to the list of reasons why Wilson’s upside is capped this week.
The same list of concerns I have for Wilson applies to Allen Lazard, only more so. Lazard doesn’t have the talent to overcome this bad situation, and his matchup is even worse. PFF gives Lazard a matchup advantage score of 23, which is “poor.” Unless Aaron Rodgers somehow comes back from the dead this week, I’m not starting Lazard.
Xavier Gipson was just promoted to the WR3 role, which is somewhat important for dynasty fantasy football. For redraft, however, this means nothing. Gipson is currently averaging 1.1 PPG and managed only negative points last week. Did I mention he has a matchup advantage score of 24, which is “poor?”
Tyler Conklin has been a sneaky good tight-end streamer this year. Even though he fell back down to earth with a 3.8-point performance last week, I have him as a TE2 because of the increased passing volume necessitated by garbage time. Don’t get me wrong: I’m still not starting him with Boyle under center, but give the man credit. It also doesn’t help that the Dolphins have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to tight ends with 6.3 PPG.