Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 26th, 4:05 PM ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Colorado
Betting Odds: DEN -2.5, 35.5 total via Odds Shark
Network: FOX
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@theDunit13 on Twitter)
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Sit, QB2)
The Cleveland Browns surprised many by opting or rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson over veteran P.J. Walker when news broke that Deshaun Watson would be out the rest of the season. DTR, as he is known around the league, had only one previous start and threw the ball 36 times with no touchdowns and three interceptions. It was a tough task against a strong Pittsburgh Steelers defense but he managed to have a decent day and lead the team to a win. Now with two full games under his belt, he gets to face the Denver Broncos, who are giving up the 6th fewest points to quarterbacks. He also gets the benefit of another full week of practice which should help the team expand the playbook and allow Thompson-Robinson to feel more comfortable with his receivers. I’m still not starting the rookie, who has yet to throw a touchdown in the NFL. He is worth rostering as a possible fill-in in superflex leagues with more bye weeks coming up, but expecting meaningful production at this point is a tall ask.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford (Start, RB1), Kareem Hunt (Start RB2)
When Nick Chubb went down with a season-ending injury early in the season, some wondered if Jerome Ford would be able to step into that role without missing a beat. That hasn’t exactly been the case but Ford has been decent. He is averaging 13.6 carries a game and 4.14 yards per carry. He comes into Week 12 facing a Broncos defense that is giving up the most points to running backs of any team in the NFL. It’s a smash matchup for Ford. On top of the matchup, the game plan will probably call for Ford often, as the rookie quarterback will be making only his third NFL start. Ford has the matchup and the game script working in his favor, which should maximize his volume and opportunity. He should easily be in the RB1 range.
Kareem Hunt has been the late game back for the Browns since signing with them. He is averaging almost the same amount of carries as Ford but hasn’t been nearly as efficient. At only 3.22 yards per carry, he doesn’t offer the upside he once did; his propensity for goal line work is what keeps him fantasy-relevant. Given the matchup and the fact that he should be able to get a sufficient number of carries, Hunt is worth starting as a low-end RB2.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amari Cooper (Start, Flex), Elijah Moore (Start, WR3), David Njoku (Start, TE1)
None of the pass catchers are spectacular with DTR throwing the ball. At some point, he has to throw a touchdown but I’m not expecting a ton in any game. This is a huge hit to the value of the Browns’ top receiver, Amari Cooper. He came into last week’s game averaging 79 yards per game. In the Week 11 matchup, he only managed 34 yards despite his snaps and targets remaining in line with what he has been seeing. This is a direct result of a quarterback making his second start. This week, Cooper will be seeing a lot of Patrick Surtain II who while rated as the 51st best cover corner has been very good at shutting down top receivers. I’m not loving this week for Cooper. I think he should be a flex play; if he scores, he can move into the WR3 range but banking on that is risky.
Surprisingly, Elijah Moore had his best receiving day of the season with DTR. He finished with 60 yards on six receptions from seven targets. Perhaps Moore has built better chemistry with the new quarterbacks and provides more trust and comfort as he gets used to the speed of the NFL. Moore’s lineup splits will be huge this week. When he is out wide he will draw coverage from Fabian Moreau who ranks as the 46th best corner. When Moore is in the slot he will see Ja’Quan McMillian who rates as the 8th best corner. I think the Browns will run a lot more two wide sets thus giving Moore the better matchup. He should end up as the Browns’ best receiving option and finish in the WR3 range.
Cedric Tillman has been playing more snaps as of late. He has been on the field over 75 percent of the team’s snaps over the past three weeks. The issue: he isn’t getting the targets. He has only seen six over that three-game stretch. Tight end David Njoku is the third option in the passing game, and the Broncos are giving up the most points to tight ends. Njoku has been a TE1 six times this season, including each of the last five games. He should be safely started this week as a TE1.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (Start, QB2)
Go get a haircut, wash the car, put on your best outfit, pick up your partner, and sit down to this delectable tasting menu by award-winning master chef Russell Wilson. Russ has been cooking over the past four weeks. He has at least a touchdown in every game this season and is completing 69 percent of his passes. He gets to serve the Cleveland Browns this week, who come in as one of the toughest defenses. They are currently surrendering the fewest amount of points to quarterbacks of any team in the NFL. It’s going to be tough for Wilson to keep up his pace. To be fair, we thought the same thing two weeks ago against the Buffalo Bills and he was able to serve up a two-touchdown game and finish just inside the QB1 range. I think all the ingredients are there for Wilson to be productive this week. He probably doesn’t crack the Top 12, but should be a solid QB2 option. Bon Appetit.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (Start, RB2), Samaje Perine (Sit), Jaleel McLaughlin (Start, Flex)
This is Javonte Williams‘s backfield and the others are just living in it. Williams has shown he can be the starting back we were expecting him to be post-injury. He is getting double-digit carries, averaging 3.88 yards per attempt, and getting a few targets to help boost his production. Going against the Browns who are giving up the 12th fewest points to running backs might be a tough day. The good news is the game script. It doesn’t look like the Browns are going to be able to put up points so the Broncos should be able to run the ball more than they otherwise would. That is great news for Javonte’s managers; he should be a solid RB2 this week.
There is room for another rusher to be relevant in the Broncos backfield. Last week it was Samaje Perine who was in late as they were in a close game. He is the pass-catching back. I don’t see this game going that way and he probably goes back to being a non-factor. I see Jaleel McLaughlin as the secondary running back who offers some value this week. If the Broncos go up by a fair amount, they could use McLaughlin to keep Williams fresh for future weeks. I see McLaughlin as a solid flex play this week with an upside; he has shown plenty of burst, as evidenced by his 6.16 yards per carry average on 45 attempts this season.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start, WR3), Jerry Jeudy (Start, WR3), Marvin Mims Jr. (Sit), Adam Trautman (Sit)
The Broncos seem to be cursed at the wide receiver position but the duo of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy have been able to stay healthy and actually be serviceable for fantasy managers this year. Sutton, who is averaging 6.2 targets a game and scoring touchdowns at will, has separated himself as the Brocons wide receiver to roster. It’s a good one-on-one matchup for Sutton, who’ll probably see coverage from Denzel Ward; he rates as the 54th-best cover corner. However, I don’t think he sees much single coverage. I suspect the Browns will move over safety Grant Delpit, who rates as the 10th best cover corner, to help neutralize Sutton. Nevertheless, start Sutton as a WR3 this week.
Unfortunately, Jerry Jeudy has been lining up a ton in the slot, which brings out the 3rd corner. That would be Greg Newsome II, who rates as the 26th-best corner. The Broncos should more two wide sets to get Jeudy on coverage from Martin Emerson Jr., who ranks as the 68th best corner. I think Jeudy can take advantage of that and the safeties shading toward Sutton to get enough volume to be a solid WR3.
After Sutton and Jeudy there isn’t a wide receiver worth starting. Rookie Marvin Mims, who is the NFL’s most efficient player on a per-touch basis, is inexplicably splitting time with Lil’Jordan Humphries. The tight ends aren’t great, and the Browns are giving up the fewest points to tight ends of any team in the league. Sit them all.