Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 26, at 1:00 PM EST
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Betting Odds: JAX -1O/U 48.5 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence (Sit, QB2)
America’s Top Hair contestant and jam-band-bass-player lookalike Trevor Lawrence is certainly the leader of a winning team but has been kind of a big meh-ball for his fantasy managers. To wit, in a Sleeper league format set up to the point ranges we work with here, “Sunshine” Lawrence was lights out, likely on benches: it was the one and only week the entire year that he clocked in over twenty points, and only the third time he’s broken past fifteen this season. That came on the heels of a previous week at the low end (and I do mean “bottom of the ocean” here) of 2.10 against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10.
Lawrence is the 16th ranked fantasy quarterback season-to-date (per fantasypros.com), 17th in the past month, and that puts him beneath notable no-thank-you-bite fantasy contestant Tommy DeVito according to the fantasypro.com system of weights and measurements during that period. Would I start Tommy DeVito over Trev? No. I quit drinking years ago. All that said, Trev’s point total last week was inflated by two rushing touchdowns with no condolences, flowers, or letters of apology sent to Travis Etienne’s owners. That’s the first time he’s run to glory this year, so I’ll go with the previous trend of “he’s not much of a running quarterback” and assume (or wish?) that those scoring runs begin reverting back to their rightful claim holder below.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne (Start, RB1), D’Ernest Johnson/Tank Bigsby (You have these guys on a roster?)
Travis Etienne, whose name I will never be able to pronounce correctly, is a must-play in a season that has a dearth of those types of players. He’s currently sitting in 3rd place in rushing yards for the year, typically hauls in about 3 passes per game to pad those weekly all-purpose yards, and he’s on the field for 80 percent of the Jaguars snaps. Be a little wary, as the Texans will put up a pretty strong fight: they come into Sunday seventh in total rushing yards allowed, and third in yards per carry at 3.7. For that reason alone, I’m tempted to push Etienne down from an RB1 to the RB2 zone – but he’s seen the end zone in five of his last six games (and double-dipped in three of those). So, let’s put on our brave pants and believe in Etienne as a prime producer on our squads. Meanwhile in today’s Tale of Two Tanks, the one that appeared to potentially become a TD vulture in the first two weeks has become a decommissioned unit only brought out for parades. Okay, that’s a bit harsh, but Tank Bigsby hasn’t seen more than three carries since Week 1, and hasn’t earned more than 13 yards since then, either. Bigsby belongs only on the deepest of benches or on a dynasty development roster. D’Ernest Johnson is more of the same but with somehow fewer carries, and older.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Kirk (Start, WR3), Calvin Ridley (Start, WR2), Zay Jones (Sit), Evan Engram (Start, TE2)
One of my QBList cohorts here noted in a Reddit thread last week that “the return of Zay Jones benefits Calvin Ridley the most.” I couldn’t tell you if that was a specifically direct correlation last Sunday, but Ridley exploded with his pinnacle season yardage output of 103 yards with two touchdowns. Should we jump blindly back into a feverish love with Ridley? Do you like heartbreak? Let’s not go nuts. Of the three prime movers in this wide receiver room, Christian Kirk is the steady hand for the season and continues to be the most consistent option in this crew, albeit not the most statistically violent. He’s a comfortable WR3 against a Texans group that will give opportunities to the entire group.
For Jones’ second week back, I’d expect maybe a couple more targets, but the reality is that Zay has only played in four games all year, has a top-out of 55 yards back in September, and is a young guy with a lot of road ahead of him…but as a fantasy option this year, particularly now as we’re all jockeying for a spot in the endgame, he’s a desperation heave. Ridley, on the other hand, may cause you to have an aneurysm, through no fault of his own. His targets over the last four games are wildly inconsistent (starting back with the Saints game, he’s seen 4, then 10, then 3, then 9). I’m going with my belief that generally – and I hear your rage, Philadelphia – generally Doug Pedersen isn’t a complete idiot. Those high-target weeks gave us high-production fantasy weeks for Ridley, and in a game that may very well see-saw a bit (as Texans games tend to do), I like him as a key component the Jags have to utilize to win this game. Kirk may have the best matchup, but Ridley has the talent and potential to finish as the most productive Jaguars wide receiver.
For all the love and adoration Evan Engram receives, you’d think the guy had scored a touchdown this year. At some point. Like, one, just one time. He has not done so, however. He does see a lot of targets weekly, though, and catches a lot of them – your mileage may vary, but he’s only cracked ten fantasy points once in the past four games, so I can’t reasonably expect much more than that this week, either.
Houston Texans
Quarterbacks
C. J. Stroud (Start, QB1)
At this point, you’ve already a) embraced the bliss and don’t think about it anymore, b) dealt him for improvements elsewhere in your lineup, or c) stopped paying attention to your league immediately after leaving the draft, and are hated by all who share a league with you. Regardless of the category you’ve fallen in here, C. J. Stroud has established himself as one of your easier weekly choices. Even on a week where things don’t go as smoothly as C. J. usually wills them to be, he’s still a great fantasy play. Last week, our guy threw three picks and STILL almost brought twenty points for those weekly investors. He’s effective, smart, and uses all the options he can, and against a Jaguars passing defense in the bottom ten, he’s golden this week again.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Start, RB2), Dameon Pierce (Sit)
After back-to-back “100-plus-yards and a score” games, it would be a shock to see this current Texans leadership team do anything to take the steam from the one running back who’s doing something for them. As a comparison, for laughs, let’s look at this: in two games as the lead (and pretty much only) running back, Devin Singletary has rushed for 262 yards. In the seven games he was active, Dameon Pierce has rushed for 327. Yeah, he was splitting some work, and pretty evenly the last couple weeks before he had to sit out due to sucki—-uh, an ankle injury, but Dameon Pierce in Year Two has been a garbage scow set ablaze on a pollution-fueled river all season. Even if he’s cleared and ready to go this week, there’s no way you should be playing (rostering?) him in any circumstance. I’m all for keeping the hot thing going. Do I think career “mildly-above-average” Devin Singletary has suddenly found a dominance gene after 4 and a half seasons of never cleanly winning a starting job without constantly being threatened with replacement? I do not. Do I think he’s found a spot where he should be the starter for the rest of the year without worrying about the specter of Pierce digging into his plate? Yes, I do. Whatever is happening with Houston is special right now, no need to screw that up, keep Devin in your lineup as long as Houston doesn’t do anything stupid here.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tank Dell (Start, WR2), Nico Collins (Start, WR3), Noah Brown/Robert Woods* (Start, Flex), Dalton Schultz (Start, TE1)
For the second installment of today’s Tale of Two Tanks, we come to the one that is much more powerful and destructive and rolling over villagers at an incredible rate. Tank Dell would likely be a front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year if it weren’t for his quarterback waving at him in the rear-view window from a mile ahead. His target share is now tops on the team (yes, I know there have been injuries) and he’s crushing every opportunity. In the past three weeks (per Sleeper), Tank has scored 29.6, 18.9, and 28.9, respectively, and until that tails off, which it very well may not, he’s a top option for your fantasy squad.
Nico Collins returned last week after a brief absence and led the week in targets (11 to Tank’s 10) and contributed a respectable 65 yards to the effort as well. This is a good 1-2 combo for the Texans, and if you’ve got either on your team, you run them without hesitation. Nico hasn’t had the same big splash in the pool game since the beginning of October, but he’s still grinding them out. Either are candidates to score in any game, I’m just favoring the one that’s burning brightest as of late.
As for their WR3 spot, well, therein lies the challenge in writing these up on Thanksgiving week: I don’t know what I don’t know about a couple of things, and in this case, it’s Noah Brown‘s knee. If he sits another week, and you’re in a bad way, I don’t hate putting Robert Woods in your flex hole, who had his best week since September (5 for 8 and 44 yards) with Brown’s absence. If Brown is back, I would be hesitant to let expectations run rampant, despite the monster weeks before the injury. That said, I don’t know that he’ll see the same haul as those weeks with Collins and Dell both at optimum performance. Still, if he’s in the game, I’m finding him a spot in mine. As for Dalton Schultz, he’s a steady contributor – this is a low-side TE1 option, primarily because the Texans use all their weapons on the regular, but with fewer clear-cut tight ends that contribute, I’ll put Dalton’s consistent involvement (and five touchdowns in the past seven games) in there and not lose any sleep.