Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 pm EST
Location: Ford Field, Beautiful Detroit, MI
Betting Odds: DET – 7.5 O/U 47 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Green Bay Packers
UPDATE: 11/23
Quarterback
Jordan Love (Start, QB1)
Sweet, sweet, Love: the past three weeks of Green Bay Packers football has brought us a better and more complete Jordan Love. The Packers homer in me is tempted to leap headfirst into a shallow pond and risk lifelong paralysis after witnessing the first 300-yard game in this nascent career. While I’m steadfastly certain that Matt LaFleur will keep that balanced attack, no matter what, the Packers will still be throwing a lot in this game. Love suddenly has a wide array of options available, and they’re actually CATCHING passes (they must’ve finally gotten around to watching that HR training video). Add in a Lions defense that gives up a little bit more to passers than runners, and Love’s fantasy managers should enjoy a harvest of yardage in the high 200s to go along with 2-3 touchdown passes. Expect low-end QB1 numbers for the first-year starter who’s somehow younger than some rookie quarterbacks (we’re looking at you, Stetson Bennett).
Running Backs
A. J. Dillon (Start, RB2), Patrick Taylor (Sit, DO NOT PICK UP)
Let’s keep this short and sweet: last week was a punch in the junk for the Green Bay running back room, but I cannot stress how much AJ Dillon has improved over the past month. As the Packers will continue to run the ball as a key component of their approach, Dillon will be receiving the lion’s share of the benefits (see what I did there?). If we look at last week’s backfield split, between Dillon, Aaron Jones, and Emanuel Wilson (not counting Love or the receiver-based plays), there were 21 carries last week. The majority of those should fall directly to Dillon this week; it’s fine that Patrick Taylor is back on the roster for a breather here and there, but we’ve seen that show a couple of times this year, and he isn’t your regularly scheduled ball carrier for obvious reasons. Beef Thighs is right on the cusp of a RB2/Flex recommendation: the Lions’ continue to have a strong run defense, and his contributions in the receiving game are spotty at best, but the volume Dillon should see is the decisive factor.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Watson (Start, Flex), Romeo Doubs (Start, Flex), Jayden Reed (Start, WR3), Dontayvion Wicks (Sit/Flex), Luke Musgrave (Sit)
This is kind of like trying to choose your favorite pie for dessert and just taking a slice of five of them and not figuring out anything other than the fact that you like to tempt diabetes, This team likes a big spread and last week they went with a whole buffet of options. Christian Watson and AJ Dillon both saw four targets, Dontayvion Wicks had five, and Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Luke Musgrave all saw six apiece. An additional seven balls were heaved toward whoever else was out there. That may sound unappetizing, but the Los Angeles Chargers are TERRIBLE AT DEFENSE. I choose to believe in one trend here: Jayden Reed will continue to be utilized in a myriad of ways and make things happen when targeted. Reed is the most explosive weapon Green Bay has this season, and folks haven’t figured him out yet. I was close to projecting him as a WR2 this week, and he’s absolutely startable, especially if injuries have wreaked havoc on a roster. I think there’s a very solid chance he follows up last week’s 92 all-purpose yard outing with another; the timeshare at work here just lowers the confidence level.
After that trendy pick, I’ll go with one I’ve been chasing all year: Romeo Doubs will continue as an insurance policy for Love; he has caught a touchdown in seven of the Packers’ ten games. Needless to say, I continue to dig him in the flex. As for the third course, Christian Watson finally made a meaningful contribution last week, and while I know we’re not supposed to be too subjective about these things, the look on that kid’s face when he got in the end zone after what has been a terrible year was priceless: it looked like some of the pressure heaped upon him was released. Hopefully, he finally shook the yips that have plagued him all year. Given his explosive speed and impressive size, they’ll continue to feed him a few high-value targets every game, and as a threat to score whenever he touches the ball, he’s another decent flex option.
This brings me to Wicks, who led the team with 91 yards receiving last week, but still somehow finds himself as the sixth (or even seventh) option in this passing game. I can’t in good faith recommend a fantasy start for a WR4 in any situation, but he’s getting more usage and making the most of it. On teams in larger leagues that are super-depleted with injuries, maybe he’s a roll-of-the-dice flex? Still feels a little soon. Finally, I’m still not sold on Luke Musgrave for fantasy purposes this year. Long term, I think he’ll turn into something good, but he’s fighting for a consistent target share while nursing an abdominal issue that was evident mid-game against the Chargers. I’m ordering other tight ends off the menu this week.
UPDATE: Luke Musgrave has been placed on IR, leaving the Packers to lean on the other rookie, Tucker Kraft, and someone called Ben Sims. While Kraft made a nifty grab and tip-toe last week, if I wasn’t recommending Musgrave, I’m more hesitant on Kraft. On the other hand, like with Dillon, he’s the ONE guy they’ve got that should see the majority of looks, so if you’re feeling frisky, let’s get nuts.
Detroit Lions
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff (Sit, QB2)
He’s a great leader for this 2023 Lions’ squad, but from a fantasy standpoint, Jared Goff has been pretty inconsistent, particularly of late, where he has brought his faithful managers 20-plus points once in the past four games, and delivered under 15 in the other three. Please note that the one big-hitter was against the previously-mentioned Los Angeles Chargers, which is kind of like gauging the effectiveness of your karate class by practicing a few moves on a toddler. Of the three “more like Jared Off” games, I can accept a bad outing against the Ravens, but the Josh McDaniels Raiders and last week’s Chicago Bears? No deal. While the Packers’ secondary will surely let Goff enjoy some success with Amon-Ra St. Brown (and to a lesser degree, tight end Sam LaPorta) this week, I see the Lions continuing the trend of what’s getting them there, and that is flowing their scheme through their running backs first and foremost.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (Start, RB2), Jahmyr Gibbs (Start, RB1)
Finally, after twenty years of continual fantasy disappointment in the shift away from single-back attacks, we finally have a couple of Running Back Committees that successfully showcase multiple running backs (see also: Miami, when healthy). Do not dream of sitting either of the Lions’ two monsters in what should be a bountiful Thanksgiving feast for both. I get that Austin Ekeler didn’t have the best showing against the Packers last week, but he also didn’t have a change of skills/tempo/pace partner to put the defense on their heels, unless you consider “unthreatening” to be a strategic change of pace, in which case, Joshua Kelley brought it in spades. But back to the week at hand! Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs EACH finished last week a turkey feather shy of 100 all-purpose yards, and both made pilgrimages to the holy end zone. In the past month of games (there was a bye week in the past five), Gibbs has dropped in over 20 points in standard Sleeper PPR formats reflective of our rankings, while Monty has added over 17 points of his own over the last two. There’s no reason to jump off a moving train. Run them both.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, WR1), Kalif Raymond/Josh Reynolds/Donovan Peoples-Jones/Jameson Williams (Sit), Sam LaPorta (Start, high-end TE2)
I shouldn’t need to say anything for this first one: if you have Amon-Ra St. Brown, and for whatever logic you’ve conjured up are even questioning if you should start him, fantasy football is not for you. Please relinquish your management rights to your nearest uncle or nephew who knows about these things. St. Brown gets targets. Almost all of them, at least those that matter, and even on an off-week he’ll conjure up at least 16 points. As mentioned many times here, Green Bay has a secondary of freshmen walk-ons and the best intentions of maybe-playing-next-week that Jaire Alexander can muster without snickering. Amon-Ra will get his chances and make the Packer faithful cry into their beer-cheese soup on many occasions this Thursday.
As for his supporting cast, well, none of them contribute anything substantial week-to-week outside of an occasional (read: once per month) end zone trip from Jameson Williams. They all get two or three looks per game, they all catch one or two of those, and they all live solitary (but noble) lives on your waiver wire, nary to be sniffed at. While the hype and luster may not be as shiny and exciting as it was the first two months, rest assured Sam LaPorta remains the second-best downfield receiving option on this team. He’s the third one when we include Gibbs, who gets five-plus targets out of the backfield consistently. This may seem spicy to some, but he grades out as a high-end TE2 simply because he hasn’t been a regular red zone producer lately, and his yardage totals haven’t gotten past fifty at best in recent weeks.