Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 26th, 8:20pm PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood California
Betting Odds: LAC +3, 52 O/U total via oddshark.com
Network: ABC, ESPN
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson (Start, QB1)
The Baltimore Ravens’ new offense has not been as high-octane as we had hoped and thus Lamar Jackson hasn’t been as dynamic as we have hoped. He just lost probably his best weapon in the passing game but he still has plenty of weapons and the rushing upside. The Los Angeles Chargers are giving up the 3rd most points to quarterbacks so this should be a smash week for Lamar. He should be able to find room in the passing game and use his legs to pick up yards. He’s a solid QB1 and if he can rush in a few touchdowns he has a legit shot at the overall QB1 spot.
Running Backs
Gus Edwards (Start, RB2), Keaton Mitchell (Sit)
Volume is king, especially at the running back position. This is the death knell for Keaton Micthell’s value. He hasn’t seen over 10 carries yet in a game. He just doesn’t have the volume to be started right now. On the other hand, Gus Edwards has been receiving the carries especially when it counts, in the red zone. Edwards has nine touchdowns in the past five weeks. He has seen double-digit carries in nine out of eleven games. He is also averaging 4.24 yards per carry. He lacks the pass-catching work and the massive volume to keep him in the RB1 range. The Chargers are giving up the 9th most points to running backs so it’s a solid matchup. The question will be game script and if the Ravens have to throw to keep up. I suspect even if they do Edwards will get enough volume and probably get a touchdown which will put him in the Rb2 range.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Zay Flowers (Start, WR3), Odell Beckham Jr. (Sit), Mark Andrews (OUT), Rashod Bateman (Start, Flex), Nelson Agholor (Sit) Isaiah Likely (Start TE2)
It’s been a rough year for Rashod Bateman. He basically lost his starting job and hasn’t seen over five targets in a game. There is some light at the end of the tunnel as it looks like Odell Beckham Jr might miss the game after suffering a shoulder injury. If Beckham misses that would open up snaps for Bateman. He hasn’t seen the targets but there is hope. He is a desperation flex play. I’m sitting OBJ because I’m worried about him being able to play after one tackle.
Tight end Mark Andrews is done for the season. Isaiah Likely will inherit those snaps and targets. Likely had some good games last year when Andrews was out. I think he is a solid TE2 this week. The Chargers are giving up the 11th most points to tight ends. Andrews was second on the team in targets and I expect about 80% of what Andrews was getting to go to Likely. Charlie Kolar is there as well who has been blocking more but has sneaky value.
Zay Flowers has been the leading target-getter on the team so far this season. He should continue to be that with Andrews out. He will most likely see top coverage which means Asante Samuel Jr. He rates as the 22nd best corner. It’s a tough matchup but I think Flowers can move around enough to get better matchups and use his exceptional route running to get open. He should be a solid WR2 this week.
You aren’t starting Nelson Agholor or Devin Duvernay. They are slot receivers who are touchdown-dependent players. The Chargers slot corner isn’t great but the safeties are so that could limit the down-the-field role that they play. Sit both of them.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
It’s been a sneakily good year for Justin Herbert. He hasn’t been hyped in the media like C.J. Stroud or Dak Prescott. He hasn’t been criticized as much as guys like Josh Allen and Prescott. He is just out there each week posting good numbers and is currently the QB5 on the season. He now gets to face the Baltimore Ravens who are giving up the 2nd fewest points to quarterbacks. It’s a tough matchup for him this week. He should still be in the top echelon of quarterbacks this week. Start him as a solid QB1.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1), Joshua Kelley (Sit)
When it comes to volume, there are very few running backs with more than Austin Ekeler. When it comes to pure talent and usage in the passing game, it’s Austin Ekeler. When it comes to touchdowns, however, Ekeler has been lackluster, with only five on the season. It’s a tough matchup against the Ravens who are giving up the 13th fewest points to running backs. Given his involvement in the passing game and that the game script should be pass-heavy, Ekeler should be an RB1.
Joshua Kelley has been nothing more than more than a change of pace back. He hasn’t seen over seven carries since Week 4. You can’t trust him in your lineup.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR2 with upside), Quentin Johnston (Sit, Flex), Josh Palmer (out), Gerald Everett (Start, TE2)
The pass catchers for the Chargers start and probably end with Keenan Allen. The 11-year veteran has been soaking up targets at a league-leading rate. Allen is as consistent as they come. He has touchdowns in the past two games. He does draw coverage from either Ronald Darby or Brandon Stephens who rate as the 34th and 33rd best corners in the league. Allen is pretty much matchup-proof. The only hindrance to his upside is the lack of a weapon on the other side of the field that would take away some double coverage. Allen is still a WR2 at a minimum this week.
I don’t want to pile on Quentin Johnston and call him a bust but he has been bad. There were some costly drops in Week 11 that have been highlighted on social media. Given that he will draw the other corner who isn’t on Allen it’s not a great matchup. He is a risky flex play. He might lose work to Jalen Guyton. Guyton has primarily played in the slot which isn’t a great matchup against Kyle Hamilton who rates as the 6th best cover corner. Guyton missed Week 11 with a groin injury so he might not even play.
The big question is if tight end Gerald Everett will be available after missing Week 11 with a back injury. His unavailability led to Donald Parham and Stone Smart having good games. The Ravens are giving up the 6th fewest points to tight ends so no matter who plays it’s a tough matchup. I’m willing to throw Everett or Parham in as low-end TE2s. Smart, while a great story, just isn’t playing enough snaps or getting enough targets.