Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, November 23rd, at 4:05 PM ET
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle Washington
Betting Odds: SEA +5.5, 44 over/under total via Oddsshark
Network: NBC
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (Start, high-end QB2)
Some will always question what Brock Purdy is and how good he can be; I lean towards the notion that he is very good in this system. Purdy has only had five games in his career with fewer than two touchdowns. He has four games with three or more passing touchdowns. The man knows how to lead a team into the end zone. The San Fransisco 49ers are healthy and Purdy has been dealing. He has three three-touchdown games and has averaged over 300 passing yards over his last four contests. Against the division rival Seattle Seahawks, Purdy will have to be on his “A game.” as he was this past week when he became the first 49ers quarterback to post a perfect passer rating since Joe Montana. The Seahawks are middle of the road in terms of points given to the quarterback position but they have two very good young corners who are always looking to take the ball away. Expect Purdy to finish as a solid, high-end QB2 this week.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (Start, RB1)
Christian McCaffery has been everything that the people who drafted him early in the first round wanted him to be. Seemingly everyone knows about the scoring streak he was on before being kept out of the end zone in Week 10. There was some fear that when Elijah Mitchell came back, he would eat into CMC’s workload; that hasn’t come to fruition. McCaffrey is averaging 17.4 carries per game; on top of that, he is averaging 5.2 targets. He now gets to face a Seahawks defense that is giving up the 5th-most points to opposing running backs. It’s another smash week for a guy who should be in the league MVP talk. He is among the favorites to finish as the overall RB1 in Week 11.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Brandon Aiyuk (Start, WR2), Deebo Samuel (Start, WR3), George Kittle (Start, TE1)
In the draft season, there was a ton of talk about who would be the main guy for the 49ers in the passing game. Would it be Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel? Currently, it’s Aiyuk. He has seen the most targets on the team and just started a two-game touchdown streak. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Seahawks, as he’ll probably see coverage from Tre Brown, who rates as the 9th-best corner, per Pro Football Focus. In last year’s game against the Seahawks with Purdy under center, Aiyuk was held in check. The 49ers have a full, healthy complement of weapons, so they don’t need to rely on him as much. Nevertheless, he’s still a must-start and should grade out as a solid WR2, even with the matchup. He has proven it week in and week out.
Deebo has been less involved. He has been dealing with an injury this season that has hampered his ability to do much with a target total that pales in comparison to his 2021 share. Samuel is still slightly involved in the running game but hasn’t been nearly as effective with it as he was two years ago. Given that he will probably see coverage from second-year stuff Tariq Woolen I’m not really excited about Deebo this week. Woolen rates as the 32nd-best corner this year, which is surprisingly low; I’m looking at Deebo as more of a flex option this week.
Beyond Aiyuk and Deebo, there isn’t a wide receiver worth mentioning. However, tight end Geroge Kittle has come on lately; unfortunately, he now has to face a Seahawks defense that is giving up the 12th fewest points to tight ends. It’s a big prime-time game which always seems to get Kittle more excited. I think he will be fine: he’s heating up and maximizing his contributions with the target volume he has been getting. As the wideouts get taken away by a talented duo of corners, I think Kittle will emerge as a go-to option in Week 11. Start him as a solid TE1 this week.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback
Geno Smith (Sit, QB2), Drew Lock (Sit)
There is a chance that Geno Smith won’t play, in which case we’ll see Drew Lock. If that is the case, I’m fully sitting Lock. Since Geno came back in for the last drive. I believe he’ll be able to play this week, relegating Lock back to the bench.
2022 was a magical season for Geno Smith; he earned the starting job and rode it all the way to the Comeback Player of the Year Award. He was rewarded with a three-year deal from the Seattle Seahawks and then received another boost in confidence when the franchise decided against drafting their next franchise quarterback. However, 2023 has been a tough year for the 11-year veteran. He has 12 passing touchdowns on the season but also seven interceptions. He now has to face his second divisional opponent in a row, and the San Francisco 49ers’ defense is giving up the 4th fewest points to quarterbacks. It’s a really tough matchup for Smith, so I think it makes sense to find a better option. He should get into the QB2 range but last season against the 49ers he had two sit-worthy games.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker (Sit), Zach Charbonnet (Sit, RB2 if Walker is out)
Ken Walker left the Seahawks’ Week 11 game with what was called an oblique injury. It’s concerning considering he had a sports hernia last year that required surgery and troubles with a groin pull earlier in the season. Continue to monitor the situation, but given that it’s a short week for Seattle, I don’t expect Walker to play. If he does suit up, he’ll likely be a limited part of the game plan, so I’m sitting him this week. Rookie Zach Charbonnet should be the primary back. The issue is the matchup. The 49ers are giving up the 8th fewest points to running backs and have a very stout defensive line. Charbonnet has looked good in his limited work so far this season. He is averaging 4.92 yards per carry. He has also been involved in the passing game recently. He has seen 11 targets over the past two weeks. It’s a sign that he should have plenty of opportunities even with a bad matchup. He should be a solid RB2 this week.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Tyler Lockett (Start, WR2), D.K. Metcalf (Start, Flex), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sit, Flex), Noah Fant (Sit)
It seems like rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba has finally started to get involved. He now is the prime slot receiver for the Seahawks. As excited as we are about his increasing opportunity, it’s not a great matchup. He will see coverage from Deommodore Lenoir, who rates as the 65th-best corner. However, the 49ers have very good safeties and linebackers who help control the middle of the field. JSN can be suitable flex play this week but I’m looking to find a better option if I have one.
Tyler Lockett has been dealing with a hamstring injury but was able to play this past week. His snap shares felt it but his production didn’t. In two wide sets, he will probably see Lenoir; in three-wide sets, he will most likely get coverage from Ambry Thomas. Thomas hasn’t played enough snaps to rank on PFF.com but rates at 70.9, which is very good. I think Lockett will still be limited given the short week but with the questions at quarterback, some short passes are probably more in line. That is where Lockett shines, so he grades out as a solid WR2 this week.
D.K. Metcalf might be the odd man out this week. He scored his first touchdown in four weeks. He is facing some tough coverage; he’ll most likely see Charvarius Ward, who rates as the 19th-best cover corner. The hope for Metcalf owners is that Ward gets put on Lockett and Metcalf can dominate. The other issue is the quarterback situation. If Geno plays, his elbow might hinder him enough that deep passes aren’t as on target or called for as often. If it’s Lock under center, then accuracy is really in question. I think Metcalf is a solid flex play with upside for much more: the game script leans towards the Seahawks playing from behind, so he should see enough targets; if they get into the red zone, his size should win.
I’m not going to waste time on the tight end position for the Seahawks. Don’t start any of them.