Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, November 23rd, 4:30 PM EST
Location: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX
Betting Odds: DAL -11, O/U 49 via OddsShark
Network: CBS
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Washington Commanders
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell (Start, QB2)
Sam Howell and the entire Commanders’ offense disappointed last week, committing six total turnovers and losing to a hapless Giants team with a starting QB whose “Mom still makes his bed.” With that being said, he still finished as the QB10 on the week and is currently QB9 in PPG.
This week, he takes on a much more difficult task, facing a Cowboys defense ranked 6th in PPG to opposing QBs. Despite losing Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL in late September, Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn is putting yet another excellent season on his resume. Howell’s biggest issue will be his protection, as the Cowboys’ defense comes in seventh in the league with 33 sacks, and Howell currently leads the league by far with 51 sacks taken (with the next closest being Zach Wilson at 38). PFF projects the Commanders offensive line at a huge disadvantage, meaning we can expect to see Howell under pressure all afternoon, and for Offensive Coordinator Eric Bienemy to likely dial up a few more screen passes and (potentially) trick plays than we may be accustomed to.
As +11 point underdogs, it is very possible we see Howell drop back 40+ times in this game, which is great for fantasy purposes, but with an implied team total of 18.75, I’m keeping my expectations tempered in a very difficult matchup. Howell is a fringe QB1 this week due to volume, but I lean toward the QB2 side due to his matchup with the Cowboys.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr. (Start, RB2), Antonio Gibson (Sit, FLEX), Chris Rodriguez (Sit)
Here’s to you, Brian Robinson. You have certainly outdone any and all of my expectations this season, entering Thanksgiving as RB4 on the season. I have my doubts this week against the 8th-ranked Cowboys rushing defense, but I have admittedly had my doubts for a while now, and you continue to prove me wrong. Robinson handled 24 touches last week against the Giants, with the most notable statistic being his seven receptions for 58 yards (nine targets). This immediately followed a six-reception (six targets), 119 yards, and one-touchdown performance just one week before against Seattle. These are pretty impressive numbers for someone whose scouting profile labeled him as “likely to disappoint as a pass-catcher” Robinson has averaged 17.3 touches/game over the past four weeks, and should see another 15+ (even if Antonio Gibson is available) this week. Even if the run game struggles, Robinson’s recent pass-catching role keeps him in the RB2 this week against the Cowboys.
Antonio Gibson (toe) was limited on Tuesday after missing last week’s game. His involvement in the offense had been creeping back up, making five receptions in each of the past three games, and averaging nine touches/game in that span. His involvement as a pass-catcher has given him FLEX value recently, but it will be difficult to predict how much he will be used on a short week coming off an injury.
If Gibson is unable to go, rookie Chris Rodriguez will play the change-of-pace back once again, after taking seven touches for 48 yards last week. However, with a lost fumble, it is unclear if he will be put in the doghouse, where we have seen Gibson so many times before.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Terry McLaurin (Start, WR3), Jahan Dotson (Sit, FLEX), Curtis Samuel (Sit), Jamison Crowder (Sit), Logan Thomas (Start, Low-TE1)
There is no doubting the talent of Terry McLaurin, but despite the Commanders’ offense looking the best it has in years, he has been unable to turn that into the premier season we’ve all been waiting and hoping for. Terry is still highly involved in the offense, averaging 9.2 targets/game over the past six weeks, with a 100% route participation rate, but he just hasn’t been able to put it all together with two straight games under 43 yards. The Cowboys rank 3rd in PPG to opposing WRs, and his matchups with Stephon Gilmore (PFF’s 49th-ranked coverage CB) and DaRon Bland (PFF’s highest-ranked coverage CB) are projected as average, at best. The game script will be in McLaurin’s favor, but even if Howell is given enough time to let the play develop, this likely isn’t going to be a breakout week.
Jahan Dotson has scored three touchdowns in the past four weeks, but since the return of Curtis Samuel, his usage has looked completely different. In the two games that Samuel was out, Dotson took 12 receptions for 177 yards and two touchdowns. Since Samuel’s return, he had a zero-point game (two targets), followed by 27 yards on three receptions, with his day salvaged by another touchdown. Although he’s played 83% of snaps over the past four weeks, his floor is low and his individual matchups do not project well at all. Dotson is FLEX-worthy due to game script, but I’m looking for better matchups elsewhere.
Curtis Samuel saw six targets in his return to action two weeks ago, but could only turn that into six yards on two receptions. Last week, he was ejected early in the game due to an end zone brawl. Samuel had a great start to the season, but he’s not in my pool in a bad matchup this week. The same can be said for Jamison Crowder, who isn’t seeing the field enough to be in consideration.
While the Cowboys have been outstanding against WRs this year, the TE position is one they have struggled against, coming in 27th in PPG. Logan Thomas enters the week as the TE12 on the year, which is about where we should expect him this week as well. He is projected to line up against S Donovan Wilson, who ranks 33rd in coverage of 88 qualified safeties. It’s not an excellent matchup, but Thomas has earned 6.4 targets/game over the past five weeks, and gets red zone looks in a positive game script. He is a trusted safety valve for Howell and fringe-TE1 this week.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (Start, QB1)
After four straight QB1 finishes, Dak Prescott finally cooled off last week, finishing as QB17 on the week. Maybe McCarthy read my rant from last week. Maybe Tony Pollard has finally had enough. Whatever the reason, the Cowboys still managed to attempt 38 passes in a 33-10 victory over the Panthers.
On Thanksgiving night, Dak gets to take on the worst secondary in the league, ranking dead last in PPG to opposing QBs. It certainly won’t hurt that this is the first time in years he won’t have to worry about Chase Young or Montez Sweat. Dak has 30+ pass attempts in each of the past five games, and the Cowboys have the highest team-implied point total on the week, sitting pretty at 29.75. No need to overthink it. Fire up Dak.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard (Start, RB2), Rico Dowdle (Sit, FLEX)
LFG, Tony Pollard! You did it, and you did it in style.
Now, do I believe that the Pollard of old is back because of one run? No, I don’t. But he is still the lead back on one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, and I’m firing him up as an RB2 again this week. Pollard had 70 yards on 16 touches last week (including four receptions), and should see a healthy 12-15 again this week as heavy favorites. Washington is 18th in PPG to opposing RBs, and has allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to the position as well. As heavy favorites, all the metrics support another solid game for Pollard.
TP runnin' ANGRY 😤 @Tp__5
📺: FOX & NFL+ → https://t.co/yLMhJNTZjs pic.twitter.com/YfUjYLpBka
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) November 19, 2023
Rico Dowdle has un-Dowdledly (shut up) earned more playing time, but was listed as a DNP on both Monday and Tuesday. He still has time to be cleared before Thursday, but if he is unable to go, this only makes space for Tony Pollard to receive more touches.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR1), Brandin Cooks (Start, FLEX), Jalen Tolbert (Sit), Michael Gallup (Sit), Jake Ferguson (Start, TE1), Luke Schoonmaker (Sit)
CeeDee Lamb also came back to earth last week, gaining just 44 all-purpose yards to go along with his fifth touchdown in four games, finishing as WR20 on the week. This week, Lamb gets extremely favorable matchups across the board, but primarily with SCB Benjamin St-Juste, who is having his best overall season, but only comes in as PFF’s 62nd-ranked coverage CB. St-Juste is going to need some help in this one, while CeeDee has overall WR1 upside once again.
Brandin Cooks has earned the WR2 role on this offense, leading the team last week with 42 receiving yards on three receptions (four targets). Cooks’ blow-up game in Week 10 has admittedly skewed his statistics quite a bit, but he is seeing 4.9 targets/game this season, which is valuable in this offense. While his matchups don’t project particularly well, he should see another 4-6 targets this week, making him a safe FLEX play with plenty of upside as the highest-scoring team on the slate.
Jalen Tolbert (48%) has outsnapped Michael Gallup (45%) over the past four games, but neither has done much with their opportunities. Tolbert has seen five targets in each of the past three games, but has less than three PPR points in three of those, while Gallup has lived between four and six points in five of his last six games. Either one has the potential to go off, but neither projects well in this game, so I’m staying away.
Immediately after I call this the “Jake Ferguson Show” and question the second-round pick of Luke Schoonmaker, it’s the latter who scores on a perfectly thrown 21-yard touchdown down the seam. I’m buying more and more into the McCarthy reading my rant theory. Although it would be wise to use Schoonmaker more, I wouldn’t fret as a Ferguson manager, and I’m happy to roll right back to him in this game. The Commanders come in 18th in PPG to opposing TEs, and LB Jamin Davis is PFF’s 65th-ranked coverage LB (out of 77 qualified), projecting Ferguson as a great mismatch in this game. Ferguson is still the TE10 on the season, and leads all TEs with 17 red zone targets. Treat him as a TE1 again this week.
Happy Thanksgiving, QBListers!
Thank you for being here, and best of luck to your teams this week.
– Nick Beaudoin