Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 26th, 1:00 PM EST
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Betting Odds: NE -3, O/U 33 via OddsShark
Network: FOX
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
New England Patriots
Quarterbacks
Does It Really Matter? (Sit, QB2)
The last we saw Mac Jones, he had just thrown a horrendous interception in the end zone, capping off a disastrous day and making sure that nobody in Germany ever wants to watch “American Football” again. With just 1:20 remaining in the game, and the Patriots getting the ball back, Bill Belichick had seen enough. Jones was benched in favor of Bailey Zappe, who would only get one shot; one opportunity; one moment; would he capture it, or just let it slip?
The answer is no. While Jones paced the bench high-fiving and supporting his teammates (credit to him), Zappe was throwing an ill-advised interception into double coverage, allowing the Colts to walk away with a 10-6 win.
Unfortunately, we still don’t know who the quarterback will be this week. What we do know, is that it will be decided in practice. Obviously. It’s hard to believe it will be Mac, with multiple reports being released that he has lost the locker room, but he was reportedly taking first reps on Tuesday, with Zappe second in line. Whether it’s Jones, Zappe, or journeyman Will Grier, it doesn’t really matter to me. I’ve seen enough of this Patriots team, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable with any of them in my lineup.
“I’ve told everyone to be ready to go.” – Bill Belichick on Tuesday
Without knowing who will be starting at QB, the Patriots are still -3 favorites, with a team-implied point total of 18.5. The Giants currently rank 17th in PPG against opposing QBs, but I’m mostly just telling you that to be polite. Regardless of who gets the nod, a low-end QB2 finish is probably the ceiling this week. Even as a long-time Patriots fan, none of them are in consideration for me.
The #Patriots’ Mac Jones Era without a doubt ended in Germany today.pic.twitter.com/9fjdlGZIR6
— Carlos (@LosTalksPats) November 12, 2023
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (Start, RB2), Ezekiel Elliott (Start, FLEX)
Rhamondre Stevenson on the other hand, is someone I am actively trying to trade for before league deadlines. Although this backfield is much closer to a split than anyone anticipated in the preseason, Stevenson is still outsnapping Ezekiel Elliott (64% to 37%) over the past five games, and is averaging 15.8 touches/game on the season. The Patriots have been using him more in the receiving game as of late, where he has now seen between four and six targets in each of the past five games. The Giants are bottom-5 in PPG to fantasy RBs, and just gave up 131 all-purpose yards and a touchdown to Brian Robinson Jr. I’m not expecting that output from Stevenson due to his timeshare (something Robinson did not have last week with 24 touches), but he has surpassed 100 all-purpose yards in each of the last two games, and the Patriots will be doing everything in their power to establish the run, with a severely struggling passing game. Stevenson is a solid RB2 this week against the Giants.
Ezekiel Elliott is a name that I have been stashing after watching him play surprisingly well against the Colts. He is of course not the powerful back he once was, but he looked surprisingly shifty in Week 10, turning 15 total touches into 88 all-purpose yards. With an extra week of rest, and an anticipated run-heavy attack as -3 point favorites, there is plenty of reason to assume another 10-12 touches for Zeke in a good matchup. He is a reasonable, but low-floor FLEX play this week, and a worthwhile stash in deeper leagues.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Demario Douglas (Start, WR3), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Sit, FLEX), DeVante Parker (Sit), Jalen Raegor (Sit), Kayshon Boutte (Sit), Hunter Henry (Start, TE2), Mike Gesicki (Sit, TE2)
Let’s start with the Patriots’ WR1: sixth-round rookie, Demario (“Pop”) Douglas. In the words of Michael Scott, “My how the turntables.”
Since Week 7, Pop has led this receiving core, playing 74% of snaps and earning a 19.4% target share. In Week 10 against the Colts, he had an astounding 40% target share, turning six receptions (nine targets) into 84 receiving yards, and finishing as WR23 on the week. In a low-scoring offense in a low-scoring game, his upside feels capped, but Douglas should once again be the first-read and command another 20%+ target share. The Giants are also bottom-five in PPG to opposing WRs, which is certainly encouraging, but it’s hard to get excited about anyone in an offense that is still deciding between three QB options in Week 12. Unfortunately for Douglas, who has played 68% of his snaps from the slot, he is projected to draw the toughest matchup in the Giants secondary, with PFF’s 15th-ranked coverage corner, Cor’Dale Flott. Even knowing this, I still expect the Patriots to be creative and find ways to get Douglas the ball, as arguably the only true playmaker in this receiving core. Despite a tough matchup, he can be treated as a WR3, due to his volume and role in the offense.
After a decent year with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, JuJu Smith-Schuster was given a bag, and brought in to replace Jakobi Meyers as the WR1 in the Patriots offense. It’s worth noting that he has battled injuries throughout the season, but up until this point, he has been anything but that. In Week 10, despite playing 99% of snaps, he had one reception, on one target, for nine yards. JuJu has favorable matchups on paper against Adoree’ Jackson (PFF’s 113th-ranked coverage CB) and Deonte Banks (PFF’s 109th-ranked coverage CB), but with just one touchdown on the year (he had three yards in that game), and more games below 20 yards than above, I’m still looking for upside plays elsewhere.
DeVante Parker (concussion) hasn’t played since Week 8, and has had two or fewer receptions in six of the seven games he’s healthy. In his absence has been a combination of 2020 first-round bust Jalen Raegor, and another sixth-round pick in Kayshon Boutte. With far too many uncertainties in this offense, none of them should be in consideration for this game.
Hunter Henry started the season hot, with over 50 yards and a touchdown in each of the first two games, however since then, he has reached 50 yards just once (51) and scored only one more touchdown. While the Giants have been porous against RBs and WRs, they have quietly done well against TEs, ranking 8th in PPG to the position. Giants’ LB Bobby Okereke is putting together his best statistical season, coming into the week ranked 8th in coverage (of 77 qualified LBs). Henry should see some targets, but I’d expect another TE2 finish this week.
Mike Gesicki has played 59% of snaps over the past four weeks, but has failed to reach TE1 status a single time this season. The most helpful thing Gesicki could do this week, is line up in the slot, take the coverage of SCB Flott away, and open up Pop Douglas for some plays.
New York Giants
Quarterbacks
Tommy DeVito (Sit, QB2)
Tommy DeVito came to play in Week 11, leading his team to victory over the Commanders, with 246 passing yards, three touchdowns, and a QB7 finish on the week. It’s a great story, but I’m not buying into it happening again. Not against my Patriots! Not in the Super Bowl revenge games!
If there is one thing Bill is still good at, it’s confusing young QBs, and after watching DeVito take nine sacks against a Commanders’ defensive line that just traded away its two best players, I am still willing to bet against him. So is Vegas, while we’re at it, giving the Giants a team-implied point total of 15.5. Despite a multitude of defensive injuries headlining the most pathetic season of this team I can remember, the Patriots still rank 11th in PPG against opposing QBs. I personally am opting out of everyone on this team not named Saquon Barkley.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (Start, RB2), Matt Breida (Sit)
Speaking of Saquon, he is still that dude. No matter how bad his supporting cast is, he continues to put up RB1 performances. The Giants had zero (that’s right, zero) rushing yards through the first three quarters of the game last week, and Saquon still ended his day with 140 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns on 18 touches. He is the heart and sole of this offense (arguably the team), and while playing on a one-year contract, the Giants have no reason to stop force-feeding him. The Patriots are 16th in PPG to opposing RBs, but regardless of situation or matchup, you’re starting Saquon and can expect a healthy 15-18 touches. Belichick is also known for taking away a team’s best player, which in this case is obvious. For that reason alone, I have him ranked as an RB2 this week, but he very well could finish as an RB1 again.
Saquon Barkley went from -2 to 81 rushing yards in the blink of an eye.
pic.twitter.com/ZjXe6PfsYy— Doug Rush (@TheDougRush) November 19, 2023
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Darius Slayton (Start, FLEX), Wan’Dale Robinson (Sit, FLEX), Jalin Hyatt (Sit), Isaiah Hodgins (Sit), Sterling Shepard (Sit), Daniel Bellinger (Sit, TE2), Darren Waller (IR)
Darius Slayton is by far the team leader in snaps, playing 71% over the past three weeks, turning four receptions (five targets) into 82 yards and a touchdown last week against the Commanders. He is averaging 5.3 targets/game since DeVito has taken over, and has had at least three receptions in all three. The Patriots do not present an especially intimidating matchup, coming in 22nd in PPG to opposing WRs, but I am still struggling to trust this DeVito-led offense. Slayton is the only option worth considering this week, and only as a FLEX play.
Wan’Dale Robinson is getting volume in the slot, but has not surpassed 35 yards in any of the past five games. Just like the Patriots, the rest of this unit is some Mod-Podge mixture of sloppy receiver play, all receiving targets from an undrafted third-string rookie QB. Wan’Dale is projected to line up almost exclusively with SCB Miles Bryant, PFF’s 87th-ranked coverage CB, but they are expected to match up pretty evenly.
Jalin Hyatt is a name to watch in Dynasty leagues, but is irrelevant at this point in time, while Isaiah Hodgins and Sterling Shepard are just out there to stay in shape.
Daniel Bellinger was second on the team in receiving yards last week, with 38 whole yards on three receptions (three targets). He is another name to watch in Dynasty leagues, but the Patriots come in top-5 in PPG to opposing TEs. Nothing to see here.
Happy Thanksgiving, QBListers!
Thank you for being here, and best of luck to your teams this week.
– Nick Beaudoin