Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 26th, 4:05 PM ET
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale Arizona
Betting Odds: LAR -1, 44.5 total via Odds Shark
Network: FOX
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford (Start, QB2)
“Lackluster” is probably an accurate word to describe Matthew Stafford’s season so far. It’s not that he’s been bad. He just hasn’t been very good either. Luckily, his matchup with the Cardinals on Sunday provides some upside on paper. The Cardinals have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. They are also ranked bottom eight in both pass coverage and pass rush by PFF. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are questionable which is reason for slight concern, but both are trending toward playing. As long as at least one of them is able to suit up, Stafford is a safe QB2.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams (Start, RB2), Royce Freeman (Sit)
The matchup is mouthwatering. The Cardinals have allowed the third most fantasy points to running backs this season and have the sixth-lowest-graded run defense by PFF. Any running back with a sizable workload could be in for a very productive day. The problem is that there is so much uncertainty surrounding this backfield. Surprise breakout Kyren Williams is expected to be activated off IR this week, and he should be the starter and is therefore a great RB2. Even if he is active though, it’s entirely possible that his workload is managed as he works his way back from the ankle injury. Usage concerns hold him outside of RB1 consideration for me, but he should still be started nonetheless.
Royce Freeman should absolutely not be started assuming Williams is active. Even if Williams is in fact held out, Freeman is a flex option. Freeman out-touched Henderson 17 to 10 last week while out-snapping him 42 to 24. He would presumably be the primary back again against Arizona (especially considering Henderson has since been waived), but others would likely still take away too much work in the passing game and by the goal line to make Freeman anything more than a flex play.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Puka Nacua (Start, WR1), Cooper Kupp (Start, WR2), Tutu Atwell (Sit), Tyler Higbee (Sit)
Let’s start off by addressing the obvious. The availability of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua is the main concern when it comes to whether or not you should start either of them. Both of them are currently listed as questionable, but both are also more likely to play than sit as it currently stands. It will certainly be something to monitor leading up to Sunday though. This may raise some eyebrows, but I view Nacua as the better start if both are able to play. Both will benefit from playing against an underwhelming secondary, but Nacua is the bigger beneficiary. The rookie figures to line up across from Marco Wilson more often than not given both of their pre-snap alignments so far this season. Marco Wilson is PFF’s 193rd highest-graded corner out of 205 total. In other words, he’s been very bad in coverage. PFF ranks Nacua’s matchup with Wilson as the single most favorable wide receiver matchup across the NFL in Week 12.
Let’s not forget that Nacua has outscored Kupp in each of the last three games in which Matthew Stafford has started, and he now gets the better matchup this week. As if that weren’t enough to convince you, he also is less likely to be affected by his shoulder injury than Kupp is by his ankle injury when it comes to creating separation. Fire the impressive rookie up as a WR1 if he’s good to go. Although I’ve made the case for Nacua over Kupp this week, Kupp is still a WR2 with upside given the favorable matchup and pure talent he possesses.
Tutu Atwell is nothing more than a desperate boom-or-bust dart throw unless either of the top two receivers are ruled out. In that case, Atwell is a decent flex play.
At tight end, Tyler Higbee is averaging just 2.7 receptions per game and hasn’t found the end zone this season. The Cardinals have been surprisingly good against tight ends and have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position this year. There is no reason to start Higbee.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback
Kyler Murray (Start, QB1)
I really love Kyler Murray this week. He has looked solid since returning from the catastrophic knee injury, and he should only get better as he continues to work his way back to pre-injury form. The Rams present a wonderful opportunity for him in Week 12. Sean McVay’s squad is the lowest-graded defense in coverage this season by PFF. They also have struggled mightily against mobile quarterbacks this year. Anthony Richardson and Jalen Hurts both went absolutely nuclear against LA as they erupted for over 27 fantasy points in most scoring formats. The former first-overall pick would be hard-pressed to find a more favorable matchup. Murray is a strong QB1 play.
Running Backs
James Conner (Start, RB2)
With James Conner back and healthy, he is the only trustworthy running back on the team. Between Emari Demercado, Keontay Ingram, Tony Jones Jr., and the recently acquired Michael Carter, it is nearly impossible to predict who will be second and third in line going forward. Regardless, Conner should get the vast majority of the work. The workload is enough to make him a decent starting option, but the Rams’ defense is a tough matchup. They have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season and have PFF’s eighth-highest-graded run defense. The Cardinals will be better off attacking LA’s porous secondary through the air than they will be trying to grind out yards on the ground. It also doesn’t help that Kyler Murray is now healthy and known for vulturing touchdowns from his running backs down by the goal line. In fact, he did it to Conner just last week. Even with workhorse treatment, Conner is a low-end RB2 at best in Week 12.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marquise Brown (Start, WR3), Rondale Moore (Start, Flex), Michael Wilson (Sit), Trey McBride (Start, TE1)
The last month and a half or so have been pretty disappointing for Marquise Brown. I think we can just about give up hope of him becoming an elite wide receiver, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a valuable asset in your starting lineup. The Rams offer a potential bounce-back spot for the former first-round pick. As previously mentioned, the LA secondary has been dreadful. PFF projects Brown to most frequently line up across from Quentin Lake, Ahkello Witherspoon, and Derion Kendrick. Lake is ranked 111th out of 162 safeties by PFF this season. Witherspoon is ranked 114th out of 205 cornerbacks, and Kendrick is ranked 141st at the same position. To simplify, Brown shouldn’t see very tough coverage on Sunday. This is a great opportunity for Hollywood and his quarterback to rediscover the elite connection they had in college. The level of risk still holds Brown outside of the WR1 or WR2 territory, but I’d be confident starting him as my WR3.
Rondale Moore has had a quiet year overall and only had one catch last week. That one catch went for 48 yards and a touchdown though. The floor is essentially zero, but I’m willing to take a flex shot on him this week given the favorable matchup and enticing ceiling. If you have great depth on your fantasy squad, I wouldn’t blame you for keeping Moore on the bench. If you need some upside in that flex spot though, Moore is an intriguing and promising option.
Rookie Michael Wilson has been pretty impressive all things considered, but he is still recovering from a shoulder injury and is the team’s third wide receiver based on snap share. I’d keep him out of your lineup.
Since the injury to Zach Ertz, Trey McBride has enjoyed a mini breakout. I don’t expect that to stop in Week 12. McBride has 13 receptions on 16 targets over the last two weeks while playing with Kyler Murray. He has been targeted on a whopping 26% of his routes run this year. To make things even more exciting, PFF ranks his matchup with the Rams as the fourth most favorable of all tight ends in Week 12. He is a great TE1 play.