Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 26, 4:25 ET
Location: Sandwiched between Xfinity Live! and I-95, Philadelphia, PA
Betting Odds: PHI -3.5, O/U 48.5 via OddsShark.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Adam Sloate (@MrAdster99)
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
He just might be back after a huge 275-yard, 3-TD performance against a formidable Jets defense. Now, Allen faces another formidable defensive front but a considerably worse secondary than the Jets. Philadelphia’s defense looked a bit better after the bye, holding the Chiefs to zero second-half points, but I am not sure they’ll have it in them to replicate that effort against Allen and the Bills. Start your star against the defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to QBs.
Running Backs
James Cook (Start, Flex)
James Cook broke out in a huge way against Denver two weeks ago, tallying 12 carries for 109 yards and tacking on an additional 2 receptions for 11 yards. Last week, Cook returned to his solid-but-not-spectacular rushing efficiency but was able to return value thanks to a receiving touchdown.
The positives: Isiah Pacheco was able to churn up some pretty good yardage in the first half against this front just a few days ago, as the Eagles devoted a substantial amount of resources to stopping the pass. Kansas City uncharacteristically won in the trenches on both sides of the ball against a team that is not used to getting dominated that thoroughly up front. Additionally, the Bills are a highly-rated run-blocking team and Cook’s been able to move the ball fairly well on the ground all year long.
The negatives: I doubt a week like Pacheco’s happens again this week, given Philadelphia’s years-long track record at winning the trench battle. Much of Pacheco’s yardage was accumulated in the first half, as Philadelphia appropriately adjusted its gameplan to stop some of those tough runs, and it worked fairly well. Pacheco was limited to barely 10 rushing yards in that second half. Also, this is the worst fantasy matchup for RBs in football. Plus, in games decided by two scores or fewer, Cook has seen, at most, 14 carries. It’s hard to return great value on that kind of volume unless you’re extremely efficient with each carry.
Overall, I think it’s too risky to expect Cook, who has had a pretty minimal receiving workload all season long (thus lowering his floor relative to other RBs), to return that RB2 value that he’s approached in recent weeks.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Dalton Kincaid (Start, TE1), Gabe Davis (Flex?), Khalil Shakir (Flex??)
Stefon Diggs has been missing in action in recent weeks, totaling just 61 yards of receiving offense over the past two weeks. He’s seen his targets decrease from the lofty 16 he saw against the Giants in Week 6 all the way down to just 5 against Denver two weeks ago. However, I’m not panicking, given that this is Stefon h*ckin’ Diggs we’re talking about here. He should be just fine, especially against a team that is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing WRs in football. I would not be surprised if the Bills moved Diggs into the slot to take advantage of his size and catch acumen against slot corners Bradley Roby and Eli Ricks, who struggle to defend some of those WRs with strong hands and a wide catch radius.
The Eagles’ struggles in the middle of the field and against big-bodied receivers should also be good news for Dalton Kincaid investors. Last week, while Travis Kelce had a quiet start to the game — thanks to a hefty number of double teams, which Philadelphia likely won’t be able to replicate given the fact that Buffalo has more than one competent receiving option — he started to come alive in the second half once Philadelphia devoted more resources to stopping Isiah Pacheco and the ground game. If the run game is clicking for Buffalo, if Philadelphia starts to move more men into the box to stop the run, Kincaid will be one of the guys to benefit. Even without that run game strength, Kincaid has the workload of a TE1 and the skills of a bona fide TE1, so it shouldn’t be too difficult of a start/sit decision anyway.
Where it gets interesting is with Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir. Davis is the second-leading receiver on this team by receiving yardage, but, like Diggs, has struggled over the last two weeks. There are worse teams to attack downfield than Philadelphia. To see some of Philadelphia’s struggles in downfield coverage, we need only look back to last week when Marquez Valdes-Scantling had everyone beat but himself downfield on what could have been the go-ahead TD for Kansas City. Davis has the same kind of speed to torture the Eagles’ slow secondary downfield, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got open for a big play or two by getting behind this defense. That being said, it’s Gabe “Famously Spotty Performance” Davis we’re talking about, who is averaging 49 receiving yards per game…but has hit that number only 4 times in 10 games.
Khalil Shakir has the higher floor this week because he is the primary Buffalo slot receiver. As we know from mere paragraphs ago, Philadelphia struggles to cover slot receivers (ask CeeDee Lamb!) particularly well, especially when those opposing receivers are attacking the middle of the field, especially Roby and Ricks. He should see a fair amount of targets in that soft middle of the field, and he could break free for a nice gain or two. The issue with Shakir is similar to the issue with Cook: he’s producing fantasy-relevant numbers on a relatively small number of targets, so he needs to be hyper-efficient to make those work from a fantasy perspective. Only once this season has he seen more than 4 targets, and last week’s breakout performance was off the back of a long 81-yard TD. Those don’t happen very often. He’s a risky flex play but could be well worth the reward given the plus matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (Start, QB1)
He’ll beat defenses through the air, he’ll beat them on the ground, and he’ll beat them pretty much any other way they force him to beat them. Yes, he had a slow start to the game on Monday night, but he still came away with two rushing TDs and a QB1-worthy fantasy performance. He’s not going to be sacked 4 times in the first half this week — and again, Philadelphia isn’t the kind of team that lets you beat them in the trenches very often — so he should be more comfortable setting up to pass this week.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift (Start, Flex/Fringe RB2)
D’Andre Swift re-awakened against Kansas City after a few middling performances, essentially putting the team on his back at times to lead the comeback win. This week, he gets a little bit friendlier of a defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to RBs, going from the Chiefs’ 20th-ranked (less friendly) RB defense to the Bills’ 13th-ranked (more friendly) defense. Make no mistake, this Buffalo defense still defends both passes and runs particularly well, ranking in the top 10 in EPA per pass and EPA per run allowed.
Like Cook, Swift has pretty minimal receiving work, which caps his value at the efficiency of his rushes. Also, like Cook, Swift has a quarterback who vultures an awful lot of red zone rushing TD opportunities from him. The difference between the two is that Swift has a more reliable workload; he’s averaging roughly 15 carries a game, which is 2-3 more than Cook on an average day. That extra workload can make all the difference between a win or a loss in some weeks, and it’s why I put Swift just a tad above Cook heading into this matchup.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Start, WR1), DeVonta Smith (Start, WR2/fringe WR1)
No one should be worrying about A.J. Brown after last week’s dud. After all, that was the very first fantasy stinker of his season, and the Philadelphia passing offense as a whole produced a fantasy stinker. Expect Brown to get heavily involved in this offense again, as the Eagles face a talented but banged-up Buffalo secondary.
In fact, here’s a list of Buffalo’s secondary players that have suffered an injury in recent weeks:
- Dane Jackson, CB, concussion, currently in the protocol.
- Taron Johnson, CB, concussion, currently in the protocol.
- Taylor Rapp, S, neck injury, but has a chance to play on Sunday.
- Micah Hyde, S, neck/stinger injury, currently “day to day,” though he suffered a neck/stinger injury last week and played through it against the Jets.
As we know from Monday night, DeVonta Smith is going to see an increased role in this Eagles offense over the next couple of weeks while Dallas Goedert remains injured. Even before Goedert’s injury, Smith was starting to find his groove again, but Goedert’s absence means Smitty’s floor is higher. There’s not much to think about here. Start him with confidence.