Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 26th @ 1:00 PM ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Betting Odds: IND -2.5, 43.5 total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matthew Cava (@cavaM_ on Twitter/X)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield (Sit)
As expected, Baker Mayfield struggled to get much going against the 49ers last week. He completed 29 of 45 attempts for 246 yards, one touchdown, an interception, and a lost fumble in the 27-14 loss. The Bucs are set to face a Colts defense allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs; an average of 15.4 points per game according to CBS Sports. With no QBs on BYE this week, Mayfield can be left out of your lineup.
Running Back
Rachaad White (Start, RB1)
Rachaad White has been as consistent as they come this season. Since Week 7, he’s averaged 19.5 full-PPR points a game. He has four total touchdowns in that span – three on the ground and one through the air – and has a juicy matchup this week against the Colts. Indianapolis is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the RB position this year.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, WR3), Cade Otton (Sit)
Mike Evans was on the receiving end of Mayfield’s lone touchdown pass of the game, and he now has two touchdowns in as many weeks. With 22 targets to his name in that same span, look for Evans to remain the clear-cut preference in the passing game for Tampa.
Since Week 8, Chris Godwin has been averaging 6.5 targets a game, which can keep him on the WR3 radar in what’s been a down year for him overall. Through 11 weeks, he’s caught 50 of 75 targets for 561 yards and just one receiving touchdown. The Colts are allowing the 18th-most fantasy points to WRs on the year.
Tight end Cade Otton caught four of five targets for 49 scoreless yards last week, and doesn’t possess fantasy value as a streaming option.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew (Sit)
Gardner Minshew enters Week 12 coming off a BYE week, but the last we saw him, he was inefficient in a win against the Patriots; he had completed 18 of 28 attempts for 194 yards and an interception. A stat popped up yesterday which highlighted Minshew’s staggering ‘pressure intake’.
Gardner Minshew is responsible for 18.8% of QB pressures the Colts have allowed this season.
Quenton Nelson (10.0%), Ryan Kelly (7.5%), and Will Fries (15.5%) are all less responsible for pressure on the quarterback than the quarterback himself. pic.twitter.com/RvPZ1D2dIb
— John (@colts_report) November 21, 2023
Even with a plus-matchup on the horizon, Minshew isn’t a worthy stream.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Start, RB2), Zack Moss (Sit)
Jonathan Taylor has firmly taken a hold of the Indy backfield in recent weeks. Against New England, he turned 23 carries into just 69 yards, but he did find the end zone in the effort. Zack Moss had just one carry, and played a season-low nine snaps in that game. The Buccaneers are strong against the run, allowing the 28th-most points to opposing RBs this season, which calls for Moss to remain on your bench. Taylor, off volume alone, shall be on the RB2 radar this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
Michael Pittman Jr. (Start, WR2), Josh Downs (Start, FLEX)
Despite any inefficiencies of his own accord, Minshew can still keep the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs fantasy relevant. In Week 10, Pittman caught eight of 12 targets for 84 scoreless yards; since Week 8, he hasn’t seen less than 8 targets a game and has 24 total receptions in that span. The matchup is great this week – Tampa is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs on the year – and so Pittman will be a high-end WR2.
Josh Downs is dealing with a knee injury that (as of Tuesday morning) has been reported to be one dating back to spring OTAs. You’ll want to monitor his practice participation this week, but coming out of a BYE, you would expect him to be in better health. That said, if you happen to have a better option, you may consider siding with that player over Downs given the nagging injury situation, but if is a full-go, Downs is a great FLEX option.
As has been the case all season, the Colts’ tight end room doesn’t offer fantasy value between Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox.