Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 26, 4:25 ET
Location: Next to Mandalay Bay, Las Vegas, NV
Betting Odds: KC -8.5, O/U 44.5 via OddsShark.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Adam Sloate (@MrAdster99)
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Well, I’d ask the rhetorical question of whether you really need to think about starting Patrick Mahomes, but at this point, it may not be as rhetorical as one might think given the receiving talent Mahomes has been “blessed with” this season. The answer is still yes, you should be starting Mahomes in any matchup. But this one is pretty juicy from a narrative perspective. Coming off a frustrating performance in the Monday Night Football Super Bowl LVII rematch, where the Chiefs easily could have added some critical points late in the game but struggled to hold onto the ball, the narrative of Kansas City needing to blow off some steam could be particularly appropriate. Mahomes could be attacking a bit more downfield this week as they try to put up points in ways that Philadelphia would not allow. In fact, the longest completion of the night for KC was an 18-yard pass to Justin Watson, so I expect the Chiefs will look downfield more often this week, especially since they’ll have the ball quite often.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (Start, Fringe RB2)
In spite of the substantial amount of Rashee Rice hype heading into Monday night’s matchup, it was actually Isiah Pacheco who had the better game for fantasy purposes. I foresee Pacheco having another solid performance this week, thanks to an easier run matchup and what will likely be substantial edges in time of possession and margin of lead.
The Las Vegas Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles have similarly ranked defenses by DVOA, while the Raiders have a slight edge in EPA per play allowed. Vegas has the better pass defense by EPA per pass, whereas Philadelphia has a much stronger run defense. As we saw on Monday, the Eagles’ defensive prowess up front meant nothing to the professional Pamplonan bull imitator Pacheco, who steamrolled through first contact on just about every run, and accordingly, tallied one of the highest rushing totals of his season. But a statistically weaker rushing matchup is always good news for any running back, and Pacheco’s dominance on Monday should be just another reason to get excited for this one.
Not only is the matchup more favorable this week, but the oddsmakers don’t seem to love their hometown team against the Mahomies. The line for this game opened last Tuesday, November 14th, at 8.5, but reopened on the 21st at 9. The times I’ve mentioned are the lines that have been mostly untouched by bettors; using the opening lines is a better indicator for me of how professional handicappers think the game will go. The pros think this one is a clear two-score game, which means plenty of room for Kansas City to try to salt away the clock via the ground game, which should benefit Pacheco.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (Start, TE1), Rashee Rice (Start, Flex), Everyone Else (Sit)
Kelce is one of about three tight ends who is an automatic Top 5 option every week. Last I checked, Kelce hasn’t given fantasy managers any reason to consider benching him, given that he’s the TE2 in full PPR scoring formats. He has been all over the place in terms of performance against the Raiders, specifically. Take a look at his last four games, descending from most recent:
- 7 targets, 6 receptions, 38 yards
- 8 targets, 7 receptions, 25 yards, 4 receiving TDs
- 4 targets, 3 receptions, 27 yards
- 10 targets, 8 receptions, 119 yards
Weird stuff, right?
Rashee Rice presents a conundrum in that he is clearly the best non-Kelce pass catcher on this team but hasn’t earned enough of the team’s trust to warrant a target share worthy of a top receiver. His target share of 12.6% placed him 99th among all RBs/WRs/TEs with at least 40 targets, just behind “elite” pass catchers like Allen Lazard and K.J. Osborn. Saving his fantasy value (and providing valuable coping material to the fantasy community) is that he’s one of the more efficient receivers in the NFL, slotting comfortably into the top 30 in terms of EPA per route run among pass catchers at all positions with at least 40 targets. Last week, Rice showed off that efficiency by turning 5 targets into 4 catches and 42 receiving yards. Unfortunately, the target share is just so pitiful that Rice will need to rip off a huge gain on one of his few targets to return real fantasy value. He’s a nice stash, but he’s not an ideal start until that workload picks up.
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterbacks
Aidan O’Connell (Sit)
Not too much to think about here. The rookie threw for a career-high 271 yards last week and paired it with a TD pass…but he completed a mere 58.5% of his passes and tossed 3 INTs to the Dolphins’ secondary. Now, facing a well-coached Steve Spagnuolo unit that has been quite tough on much better quarterbacks, I’d fade Aidan O’Connell pretty darn hard.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (Start, Flex/fringe RB2)
While Kansas City ranks among the worst rush defenses by EPA per rush, I would be hesitant to lock in Josh Jacobs for a big fantasy day; I suspect that Kansas City will try to key in on Jacobs and dare O’Connell to beat them through the air. That means more stacked boxes, more men up front to plug up rushing lanes, and earlier contact on Jacobs at or near the line of scrimmage. None of that bodes well for fantasy production, but Jacobs has earned the fantasy community’s collective trust after years of excellent rushing production and strong fantasy output this season, too.
I sure wish Jacobs would see more work in the passing game, though. Since Antonio Pierce took over as Vegas’s head coach, the Raiders haven’t been in any blowout losses, so it’s hard to foresee what the receiving usage will look like. However, in his last 3 games, Jacobs has seen exactly 3 total targets and produced just 23 receiving yards. Without that receiving work, in games requiring a pass-heavy script (as a 9-ish point game will require), Jacobs could easily disappoint.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, fringe WR1), Jakobi Meyers (Flex), Michael Mayer (TE2)
Since the bad man left the Raiders, Davante Adams has produced a WR3 finish, a WR2 finish, and a WR1 finish. In each of the two most recent games, he’s seen 13 targets and finally got into the end zone in his most recent game after a 7-game drought. The workload is incredibly encouraging, and the fact that he’s finally getting back into the end zone makes me feel a little more comfortable expecting fringe WR1 production. Couple that with what will likely be a pass-heavy game script and we’ve got a recipe for a nice fantasy performance.
Fun fact: Adams will be running into a surprisingly tough matchup with L’Jarius Sneed this week:
The great @MikeClayNFL tracks CBs that shadow and L'Jarius Sneed has done so for 9 straight games.
The results for those WRs:
AJ Brown: 1 catch, 8 yards
Tyreek Hill: 8 catches, 62 yards
Courtland Sutton: 2 catches, 29 yards, 1 TD
Josh Palmer: 5 catches, 133 yards
Jerry…
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 21, 2023
Michael Mayer has come on strong as of late, as it seems that the coaching staff values having a singular Mayer over the plural Meyers. Last week was his second-best yardage output of the season, tallying 46 receiving yards on 5 targets. He should be the main security blanket for O’Connell, who will need to find a way to get rid of the ball before onslaught of unblocked rushers that Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for sending. This Kansas City pass rush is no joke! Mayer is a weaker TE2 play this week because the Chiefs are one of the worst matchups for opposing TEs in terms of fantasy points; what keeps him in TE2 range for me is that he’s developed a bit of trust with O’Connell and that the Raiders will need to throw the ball to someone to keep them in this game.
Meyers has fallen from the great heights of his performances against the Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, and Green Bay Packers from a few weeks back. His workload has bounced from completely unstartable (1 catch for 19 yards against Detroit on October 30th) to “meh” last week, with 4 catches for 49 yards, with a lot in between. He’s a risky play this week, given how unpredictable his workload can be, but the production has been there as recently as last month, so he could conceivably pick up the slack if Adams is blanketed well by Sneed and O’Connell has time to look for a downfield option.